AI popular stock Palantir Technologies will announce its fiscal year 2025 Q2 earnings after the US stock market closes on August 4, Eastern Time.

According to Bloomberg analysts' consensus, the company's revenue is expected to reach $940 million, up 38.59% year-on-year; adjusted net profit is estimated at $357 million, up 61.33% year-on-year; adjusted earnings per share is expected to be $0.139, a significant increase of 54.97% year-on-year.

Last Quarter Review

Palantir delivered a performance far exceeding market expectations in the first quarter of fiscal year 2025. Revenue reached $884 million, surpassing the generally predicted $863 million by analysts, a significant increase of 39% year-on-year (last year: $634.3 million). Adjusted earnings per share were $0.13, in line with market expectations; net income doubled to $214 million (last year: $105.5 million), with earnings per share rising from $0.04 to $0.08.

In terms of profitability, the company's operating margin significantly increased to 19.9%, well above the 12.8% in the same period last year. On the business side, U.S. government revenue grew 45% year-on-year to $373 million; U.S. commercial business performed particularly well, skyrocketing 71% year-on-year to $255 million, becoming the main driver of overall growth.

The company has significantly raised its full-year performance guidance: it expects full-year 2025 revenue to be between $3.89 billion and $3.90 billion, far higher than the previous forecast of $3.74 billion to $3.76 billion; this quarter's revenue is expected to range from $934 million to $938 million. Additionally, the company expects full-year adjusted operating profit to reach between $1.711 billion and $1.723 billion, and free cash flow is expected to reach between $1.6 billion and $1.8 billion, demonstrating strong confidence in profitability and cash flow.

Key Points to Watch This Quarter

Commercialization of AIP Platform Enters Key Phase

Palantir's artificial intelligence platform (AIP) is entering a critical transition period from technical validation to large-scale commercialization. The platform is now deployed in over 100 institutions, with more than 300 companies in negotiation stages. In the defense field, the usage of the Maven AI system has doubled, successfully expanding to key customers such as NATO; in commercial applications, AIP has realized practical deployments in supply chain optimization, predictive maintenance, and other areas.

The market is highly focused on whether this platform can encourage customers to shift from single-point solutions to platform-based subscriptions. This transition will directly enhance the sustainability and quality of revenue, becoming a core engine driving long-term growth.

Policy Dividends and Strong Performance in Government Business

Driven by the "Big and Beautiful" tax bill and the trend of AI adoption in defense, Palantir's government business is enjoying dual benefits. The company signed 31 large contracts worth over $10 million in the first quarter, including the US military's "Warp Speed for Warships" project. The strategic cooperation with Accenture Federal Services is also progressing steadily, further consolidating its leadership in the government AI market.

Investors need to pay attention to whether the government business can continue gaining large contracts this quarter, especially in high-value verticals such as navy and intelligence systems.

Business Model Transformation: From Project-Based to Platform Services

Palantir is accelerating the shift from traditional project delivery to long-term service cooperation. This strategy has initially been successful in the US market, where US commercial revenue grew 71% year-on-year last quarter, with renewal rates maintaining industry-leading levels. The company is promoting the transition from standardized products to customer-customized solutions through deep on-site technical teams.

This quarter, the market will watch whether this "deep binding" model can be successfully replicated in European and Asian markets, further expanding its global commercial footprint.

Investing Logic Contest: High Growth vs High Valuation

Although Palantir has achieved multiple quarters of better-than-expected performance, there remains significant market disagreement regarding its valuation. Optimists value the company's scarce position in AI intelligence and defense digitization transformation, particularly its continued higher than 40% free cash flow margin, lauded as a "rare high-growth + high-profit combination in the tech industry."

However, cautious investors point out that Palantir's current EV/Sales multiple exceeds 20 times, much higher than the industry average of 8 times. To support such a high valuation, the company needs to maintain continuous above-expectation growth in the future.

Analysts' Views: AI Bull Stock or Valuation Bubble?

As AI investment heats up, Palantir has become one of the most controversial AI concept stocks in the market. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives compares it to the "AWS of the AI era," setting a target price of $160, believing the company will be a direct beneficiary of the Trump administration's tax reform and "manufacturing backflow" policy. Piper Sandler is more optimistic, setting a target price of $175, predicting the company's revenue to reach $24 billion by 2032, maintaining a compound annual growth rate of over 30% and a free cash flow margin of over 40%.

Bulls also point out that Palantir's inclusion in the Nasdaq 100 index is expected to attract more passive fund inflows; meanwhile, the company has continuously achieved the "exceeding expectations + raising guidance" inertia for multiple quarters, helping to strengthen market confidence. Jackson Peak Capital also noted that current institutional allocation levels are still low, with significant potential for capital allocation supplementation.

Conversely, bears question whether Palantir's valuation has already excessively priced in future growth. Morgan Stanley noted that while government business is strong in the short term, its sustainability is questionable; commercial customers face fierce competition from C3.ai and Snowflake.

Piper Sandler analyst Brent Bracelin said in a recent report that although Palantir carries valuation premiums and risks, they still maintain a "strong buy" rating. He noted that the platform's visits surged 144% year-on-year in the second quarter, equaling leading AI platforms such as ChatGPT and Anthropic, demonstrating its product popularity and commercial conversion capability.

Summary: Palantir stands at the crossroads of AI application commercialization and valuation repricing. Whether this quarter's earnings can maintain growth momentum, enhance customer stickiness, and achieve breakthroughs in key policy benefits and global expansion will be the core basis for both bullish and bearish arguments.

Whether as an individual stock or as a wind vane for observing the commercialization process of AI applications, Palantir's earnings report is worth market attention.

This content is generated based on tiger AI and Bloomberg data, and it is for reference only.