According to a Reuters survey, analysts have lowered their gold price forecasts for the first time since late 2023. This follows a significant retreat from the record highs seen in January, though most respondents still believe that ongoing central bank purchases and concerns over government fiscal sustainability will continue to provide support for gold prices. The survey of 29 analysts and traders over the past three weeks found the median forecast for the 2026 gold price at $4,509 per ounce, down from $4,916 in the previous survey three months ago. This marks the first downward revision to gold price forecasts by analysts in 11 consecutive quarters. For 2027, the average price prediction from analysts was $4,610 per ounce, lower than the $5,100 forecast from the prior round of polling.

Gold prices hit an all-time high of $5,595 per ounce in January but experienced a sharp correction in the second quarter, recording their worst quarterly performance since 2013. Market participants believe the Iran conflict, which has pushed up energy prices and strengthened expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes, was a key factor driving the gold price adjustment. Since the outbreak of the conflict, spot gold prices have fallen by roughly 22%.

Structural Support Remains, Central Bank Buying Key Bullish Factor

Despite short-term price pressure, analysts argue that the core factors driving gold's long-term uptrend, including geopolitical risks, government debt burdens, and currency depreciation concerns, have not disappeared. "Excluding the short-term noise, we believe the structural basis for gold's rise remains unchanged," said Suki Cooper, an analyst at Standard Chartered Bank. "Gold is finding a floor before it can focus on the next upside catalyst." The survey shows that central banks are still viewed by most analysts as the most stable source of gold demand. While future purchase volumes may fall short of previous record levels, the ongoing trend of central banks adding to their gold reserves is still considered supportive. "The deterioration in fiscal conditions, concerns about the credibility of fiat currencies, and the gradual move away from excessive reliance on the dollar remain firmly in place," said David Russell, CEO of precious metals dealer and broker GoldCore.

Meanwhile, analysts are more cautious about gold jewelry demand, particularly in the world's two largest physical gold consumer markets, India and China. Anushree Ganeriwala, an analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit, stated that high gold prices could continue to curb consumer demand, especially after India raised its import duty on gold. India increased its import tariff on gold and silver from 6% to 15% in May, a move aimed at limiting overseas metal purchases and easing pressure on foreign exchange reserves.

Silver Forecasts Also Lowered, Industrial Demand Key Uncertainty

Compared to gold, analysts are more cautious about the outlook for silver prices. The survey shows the average price forecast for silver in 2026 is $72 per ounce, down from the $78 per ounce predicted three months ago. Analysts point out that silver, possessing both precious and industrial metal properties, is more susceptible to the impact of a slowdown in global industrial activity and concerns about weakness in solar industry demand. However, the market supply structure remains tight, and some analysts believe that developments in artificial intelligence, electric vehicles, and the solar energy industry could still support silver demand. "Improvements from AI, electric vehicles, and a solar recovery will support solid industrial expansion and provide a floor above $40," said Rhona O'Connell, an analyst at StoneX.

Commerzbank Lowers Gold and Silver Price Targets Again: Iran Conflict Prevails, Gold's Safe-Haven Advantage Pressured

Gold prices are currently struggling to stay above $4,000 per ounce, but the market still faces further downside pressure. Commerzbank stated that as long as the Iran conflict persists, it will be difficult for gold to regain upward momentum. On Tuesday, Commerzbank's commodity research team, led by Thu Lan Nguyen, again lowered its gold price forecast, marking the second adjustment in two months. The bank now expects gold prices to reach around $4,500 per ounce by the end of this year, down from the $4,800 target set in June. Simultaneously, Commerzbank also lowered its year-end silver price forecast from $80 per ounce to $67 per ounce. Nguyen stated that the forecast adjustments primarily reflect persistent inflationary pressures pushing the Federal Reserve towards a more restrictive policy stance. However, she believes the market's current pricing of Fed rate hikes is already overly aggressive, which also suggests there is room for gold prices to rebound from current lows.

Nguyen indicated that if inflation pressures ease in the future, gold could still return to the $5,000 per ounce level in 2027. However, she believes the biggest uncertainty remains the Iran conflict. The ongoing Middle East conflict is eroding several bullish factors that drove gold to record highs earlier this year. She noted that the United States, as an energy exporter, is benefiting from the current energy crisis, as evidenced by the growth in its oil exports in recent months. This has also rekindled market demand for the dollar as a safe haven. Nguyen said that on "Liberation Day" following the US government's sweeping tariff measures, the cost of hedging against a decline in the dollar versus the euro increased significantly, reflected in the euro/dollar positive risk reversal indicator. But since the outbreak of the Iran conflict, the dollar has again been viewed by the market as a safer asset compared to the euro. "As long as this situation persists, gold is unlikely to benefit disproportionately from increased safe-haven demand," Nguyen said.

Commerzbank believes that despite increased geopolitical risks, there is little evidence to suggest that the Iran conflict is having a long-term impact on the US economy. Nguyen pointed out that while short-term inflationary pressures have strengthened, long-term inflation expectations remain stable. In this environment, the Fed is unlikely to adopt aggressive policies that would alter gold's long-term bullish logic. "Gold has the potential to recover from current levels because we believe the market's expectations for Fed rate hikes are too high, and we expect the Fed to keep rates unchanged until the end of the year. The Fed is only likely to raise rates if inflationary trends force them to do so," she said. She noted that Commerzbank's economists' baseline judgment remains unchanged, which is that US core inflation will not significantly exceed a monthly growth rate consistent with the 2% target in the coming months. In this scenario, the Fed may not raise rates and could even begin cutting rates from mid-2027, as the US inflation target is expected to be met by the spring of 2027.

Although months of gold price adjustments have dampened market sentiment, Commerzbank believes the structural factors supporting gold's long-term uptrend remain in place. Among them, US policy uncertainty is undermining market confidence in the dollar's traditional safe-haven status and continues to support gold demand. Furthermore, following the freezing of Russia's foreign exchange reserves, a growing number of central banks are reassessing the safety of their reserve assets and accelerating gold allocation. Simultaneously, increasing government debt in developed economies is also raising concerns about the long-term safety of sovereign bonds. Commerzbank believes that in this context, gold, as an asset that does not rely on a single system and carries no credit default risk, retains its long-term appeal.