Market Analysis On the employment front, U.S. initial jobless claims surged by 44,000 to 236,000 last week, marking the largest increase since March 2020. Continuing claims for the week ending November 29 dropped to 1.84 million, the sharpest weekly decline in four years, coinciding with the Thanksgiving holiday. Additionally, the U.S. trade deficit narrowed by nearly 11% month-on-month in September to $52.8 billion, significantly below the market expectation of $63.3 billion and hitting the lowest level since June 2020. U.S. exports rose 3% to the second-highest level on record, while imports grew modestly by 0.6%.

Futures Performance and Volume On December 11, 2025, the SHFE gold main contract opened at 954.48 yuan/gram and closed at 957.90 yuan/gram, up 0.16% from the previous session. Daily trading volume stood at 41,087 lots, with open interest at 129,725 lots. In the night session, the contract opened at 958.90 yuan/gram and closed at 969.80 yuan/gram, rising 1.24% from the afternoon close.

The SHFE silver main contract opened at 14,300 yuan/kg and closed at 14,488 yuan/kg on December 11, up 0.80% from the prior session. Daily trading volume reached 1,633,505 lots, with open interest at 423,172 lots. In the night session, the contract opened at 14,525 yuan/kg and closed at 15,008 yuan/kg, surging 3.59% from the afternoon close.

U.S. Treasury Yields and Spreads On December 11, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.153%, unchanged from the previous day. The 10-year to 2-year spread remained at 0.619%.

SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Volume Changes For the Au2602 contract, long positions decreased by 688 lots, while short positions fell by 131 lots. Total trading volume for SHFE gold contracts rose 9.86% from the prior session to 304,925 lots. For the Ag2602 contract, long positions dropped by 15,001 lots, and short positions declined by 11,358 lots. Total trading volume for SHFE silver contracts fell 9.36% to 2,582,854 lots.

Precious Metals ETF Holdings Gold ETF holdings remained flat at 1,046.82 tons, while silver ETF holdings increased by 110 tons to 16,083 tons.

Precious Metals Arbitrage Tracking Domestic premiums: On December 11, gold’s domestic premium stood at -9.91 yuan/gram, and silver’s at -1,395.25 yuan/kg. Gold-silver ratio: The SHFE gold-silver main contract price ratio was approximately 66.12, down 0.64% from the previous day. The international ratio closed at 68.67, down 4.26%.

Fundamentals On December 11, trading volume for gold T+d on the Shanghai Gold Exchange rose 16.60% to 33,596 kg, while silver volume increased 8.75% to 894,426 kg. Gold delivery volume was 11,872 kg, and silver delivery volume was 30,750 kg.

Strategy Gold: Cautiously Bullish The market currently favors marginal easing signals from the Fed beyond the December rate cut. Gold prices are expected to remain strong with a consolidating uptrend, with the Au2602 contract likely trading between 940–980 yuan/gram.

Silver: Cautiously Bullish Silver prices have surged alongside gold, but with improving risk sentiment, silver is slightly outperforming gold, potentially narrowing the gold-silver ratio further. Silver prices are expected to maintain a consolidating uptrend, with the Ag2602 contract likely trading between 14,500–15,500 yuan/kg.

Arbitrage: Buy gold-silver ratio on dips Options: Pause for now

Risks Overseas liquidity risks Speculative positions continuing to unwind