Following military strikes by the U.S. and Israel against Iran and Iran's swift retaliation, an unexpected "acute operational crisis" has rapidly swept through the global shipping industry. On March 1, local time, the Joint Maritime Information Centre (JMIC) raised the threat level for the Strait of Hormuz to the highest level, reporting that three oil tankers had been attacked within the past 24 hours. Data from international oil tanker traffic monitoring systems showed that by February 28, local time, the sailing speed of oil tankers in the waters surrounding the Strait of Hormuz had generally dropped to zero, indicating that shipping in the region had come to a standstill.
According to incomplete statistics, as of March 1, multiple shipping companies, including the world's largest carrier by capacity, Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC), global logistics giant Maersk, and German container shipping group Hapag-Lloyd, have implemented risk avoidance measures. These include instructing all vessels operating in or heading towards the strait area to proceed to safe havens, or suspending all transits through the Strait of Hormuz. Some carriers, such as French group CMA CGM, have announced that relevant vessels will be rerouted via the Cape of Good Hope.
As the sole maritime通道 for crude oil from Middle Eastern oil producers like Saudi Arabia and Iraq, and for Qatari liquefied natural gas, the Strait of Hormuz handles approximately one-fifth of global oil trade, giving it a pivotal role. Multiple shipping industry experts stated that the rapidly deteriorating situation in the Middle East will drive shipping rates even higher, with oil tanker rates being the most noteworthy.
Beyond the oil tanker market, some institutional sources believe freight rates in the container shipping market are also expected to rise. Oil shipping rates in the Middle East have already increased sharply. The China Import Crude Freight Index (CTFI) released by the Shanghai Shipping Exchange on February 26 was reported at 3741.91 points, up 56.9% from February 12. Notably, the freight rate for VLCCs (Very Large Crude Carriers) from the Middle East to Ningbo, China, saw the largest increase, rising 59.41% compared to February 12.
The ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict is expected to cause global shipping rates to rise accordingly. As a key link connecting the upstream and downstream of shipping, freight forwarders in the middle of the industry chain are facing multiple tests. These include how to absorb the cost pressures from rising freight rates, how to communicate effectively with clients to navigate the changes, and how to adjust future route planning to mitigate risks—all pressing issues that must be carefully addressed.
Soaring freight rates have become a certainty. The U.S.-Iran conflict has shattered the previous calm of the shipping market, affecting the entire industry chain. According to reports, while the Strait of Hormuz remains open, caution is advised for passage. However, shipping companies have already taken proactive action. Real-time data from international oil tanker traffic monitoring systems showed that by February 28, oil tanker speeds in the vicinity of the Strait of Hormuz had generally fallen to zero, indicating a停滞状态 in regional shipping. Meanwhile, several European governments have issued emergency orders to their nationally-flagged oil tankers en route, strictly prohibiting passage through the Strait of Hormuz to avoid security risks from the escalating situation.
Currently, multiple shipping giants, including MSC, have announced suspensions of transit through the Strait of Hormuz. The immediate challenge is that for goods already loaded into containers but not yet departed, carriers have entirely suspended shipments, requiring customs declaration cancellation and return arrangements. For goods already en route, they will be offloaded at transshipment ports to await further notice, and carriers are highly likely to increase freight rates subsequently.
Several major shipping companies have already announced price increases. For instance, Hapag-Lloyd is imposing a surcharge due to war risk, adding $1,500 per 20-foot container. Another major carrier, CMA CGM, is adding a $2,000 surcharge per 20-foot container for bookings in the region. The combination of suspended sailings and carrier surcharges will directly push shipping costs higher.
Analysts indicate that statistics show 3,341 vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz in February, including 503 crude oil tankers and 577 product tankers. Following the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran conflict, transit through the strait has essentially halted. In the short term, VLCC rates exceeded $200,000 per day last week. As VLCCs are the primary vessel type for the Middle East-Far East route, coupled with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, rates are expected to be pushed even higher. The continued idling of oil tanker capacity in the Persian Gulf region will lead to a structural reduction in available tonnage.
Other analysts share a similar view, stating that the impact is greatest on VLCC and LNG vessel rates. Recent intensified efforts by Europe and the U.S. to crack down on shadow tankers have reduced the global oil tanker fleet by approximately 15%. Currently, about 200 vessels, predominantly tankers, are stranded near the Strait of Hormuz, further tightening oil shipping capacity and disrupting the supply-demand balance.
The industry widely expects oil shipping rates to remain high. Analysis suggests that the Strait of Hormuz is the only sea passage from the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean. A blockade of the strait could short-term trigger a rush for oil or vessels, causing oil prices and tanker rates to spike rapidly due to panic sentiment. Even though some crude from Saudi Arabia and the UAE can be transported via pipelines bypassing the strait, pipeline capacity is clearly insufficient to弥补 the gap caused by its closure. Regardless of subsequent outcomes, the escalation has already fueled short-term panic, and VLCC rates are highly likely to remain in a relatively "frantic" state until the situation shows clearer signs of easing.
Compared to the oil and gas shipping market, the impact of the Hormuz situation on the container market is much smaller. On March 1, MSC also announced that, given the evolving security situation in the Middle East, it has suspended all new cargo bookings globally for destinations in the Middle East until further notice. The container shipping market for Middle East routes has largely转入暂停状态, including suspending transit through the Strait of Hormuz and halting new bookings. Geographically constrained, Middle East routes passing through the Strait of Hormuz are almost irreplaceable. If these routes are suspended long-term, it意味着 a significant amount of currently deployed capacity will be forced onto other routes, and longer transportation distances will elevate freight rates.
The U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions are pushing the global shipping market towards greater uncertainty. The current obstruction of the Strait of Hormuz will not only directly impact Middle East routes but could also force vessels to divert or cause backups, potentially triggering连锁性的船期紊乱 and port congestion risks at transshipment and destination ports. Satellite imagery shows multiple vessels滞留 near major ports like Fujairah in the UAE, unable to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Statistics indicate over one hundred vessels are currently被迫滞留 at either end of the strait.
Compounding the situation, some ports have ceased operations. The operator of Jebel Ali Port, the largest man-made port and container port in the Middle East, announced on March 1 that, following recent regional developments and directives from relevant government authorities, port operations at all terminals have been temporarily suspended as a precautionary measure. Jebel Ali Port is a core hub for Middle East routes. Predictably, operational disruptions at Middle Eastern ports will inevitably exacerbate vessel congestion.
Perhaps based on this prediction and to enhance transportation safety, some carriers have already begun主动选择绕航. On March 1, local time, Hapag-Lloyd announced on its website that it would reroute certain voyages on its IMX service from the Suez Canal to the Cape of Good Hope. Similarly, Maersk decided to reroute recent voyages on its ME11 and MECL services from the Suez route to the Cape. Following the 2023 Red Sea crisis, the container shipping market has faced ongoing rerouting challenges, although the Gemini Alliance, led by Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, had been actively推进 plans to return to the Suez Canal this year. Now, with renewed geopolitical tensions, these plans are被迫搁浅, raising new concerns about the recovery of route transportation efficiency and the redistribution of global shipping capacity.
This will, to some extent, affect the global shipping landscape. Firstly, vessel turnaround efficiency will be difficult to improve. Compared to transiting the Suez Canal, rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope adds approximately 3,500 nautical miles and 10 days of sailing time per leg. Secondly, the Cape is a confluence of multiple ocean currents with extremely恶劣 sea conditions, making vessel handling difficult. Waves of 15-20 meters are common, posing direct threats to vessel structural safety and increasing the risk of damage to vessels, cargo, and crew,甚至海难.
Looking beyond short-term risks, from a long-term perspective, the widespread rerouting currently adopted by carriers could become a key variable driving profound changes in the global shipping industry. After the Red Sea crisis erupted, leading shipping companies, leveraging their strong risk resilience, implemented various measures including rerouting, insurance hedging, and route optimization. It is anticipated that overall traffic through the Suez Canal will continue to decline. In the long run, this situation will promote the further strengthening of hub port status in the Middle East, potentially reshaping the regional port landscape, and causing the global shipping cost base to trend upwards.
Continuously prolonged rerouting will deepen the transformation of the global shipping network, leading to a reduction in effective market capacity and an increase in shipping costs. In the future, large shipping companies, due to their scale advantages, will possess stronger pricing power.
Faced with freight rate fluctuations and route disruptions caused by the U.S.-Iran conflict, freight forwarders are caught in a dilemma, with their profit margins being rapidly eroded. Beyond rising freight costs, even if carriers can complete sea transport as agreed, subsequent challenges such as cargo release, customs clearance procedures, and container pickup remain unresolved.
Freight forwarders are暂时还不知道 the extent of potential losses. The best outcome would be to negotiate with clients to share the additional costs, thereby reducing some of the losses. For cargo destined for the Middle East, the situation is currently unclear. It can be said that Middle East routes are全面停止了. Other routes, such as those to Europe, are expected to experience a wave of freight rate increases due to the conflict.
Faced with the current situation's trajectory, freight forwarders普遍表达了担忧. Responses vary regarding how to cope. Prepared应对方案 include tracking arrival times for shipped goods, verifying cargo insurance, and contacting shippers to purchase war risk insurance for goods already shipped. For goods already containerized but not yet departed, actions include confirming vessel schedule status and妥善处理后续事宜, coordinating with warehouses, trucking companies, and terminals to arrange proper temporary storage or return, clarifying cost responsibilities. For goods not yet shipped, proactive communication and方案调整 based on circumstances are key, along with提前预警 about potential cost increases.
Opinions differ on whether Middle East route business will be reduced subsequently. Some companies indicate their Middle East business currently represents a small portion, around 10-15%, and they have diversified their布局 in recent years to mitigate risk, expanding into markets like Vietnam and Mexico in South America. Multi-market布局 helps分散风险 from any single market and allows for strategic adjustments during major global trade disruptions. The focus for this year remains稳住 the European route as the foundation, while seeking new growth in U.S. routes and Southeast Asia业务量.
However, many other freight forwarders find it difficult to reduce their Middle East market business. In the current complex situation, whether companies opting for diversified operations or those deeply invested in the Middle East market, all are awaiting a clearer resolution. Multiple forwarders stated that for now, all they can do is密切关注局势演变,灵活调整经营策略, and strive to稳住阵脚 amidst the uncertainty.