According to a research report, express delivery business volume growth and physical goods online retail growth formed a divergence in July, with the trend of smaller express packages continuing in 2025, catalyzing rapid year-over-year growth in express parcels. Industry price wars continued in July, but under the anti-involution backdrop in August, per-ticket prices may see some recovery. Given the multiple investment opportunities across different segments of the express delivery industry, the sector maintains a "recommended" rating. Franchise express companies are expected to see performance recovery under the anti-involution backdrop, with focus on Sto Express Co.,Ltd. (002468.SZ), Yunda Holding Group Co.,Ltd. (002120.SZ), Yto Express Group Co.,Ltd. (600233.SH), and ZTO EXPRESS-W (02057). Key attention should be paid to value stock S.F.Holding Co.,Ltd. (002352.SZ).

The main viewpoints are as follows:

Industry Volume and Price: ①Volume: In July 2025, express delivery industry business volume year-over-year growth (15.1%) > physical goods online retail year-over-year growth (8.3%) > total retail sales of consumer goods year-over-year growth (3.7%). The divergence between express delivery business volume growth and physical goods online retail growth indicates the continuation of the smaller package trend in 2025, catalyzing rapid year-over-year growth in express parcels. ②Price: In July 2025, industry per-ticket revenue was 7.36 yuan, down 5.33% year-over-year and 1.76% month-over-month. On one hand, the trend toward smaller packages impacts the express delivery industry's per-ticket revenue; on the other hand, price wars continued in July, but under the anti-involution backdrop in August, per-ticket prices may see some recovery.

Regional Volume and Price: ①Volume: In July 2025, express delivery business volume year-over-year growth in first-tier/second-tier/third-tier regions was +14.2%/+16.8%/+28.0% respectively, with non-grain-producing areas showing higher business volume growth than grain-producing areas. ②Price: In July 2025, express delivery per-ticket revenue year-over-year growth in first-tier/second-tier/third-tier regions was -4.7%/-7.2%/-12.1% respectively. The main battleground of price competition shows a trend of shifting toward non-grain-producing areas: 1) Business volume growth in non-grain-producing areas is higher than in grain-producing areas; 2) Multi-year competition in grain-producing areas has pushed prices and profit margins near their limits; 3) Volume increases in non-grain-producing areas are expected to improve companies' return trip loading rates, benefiting overall network cost reduction.

Individual Company Volume and Price: ①Volume: In July 2025, express delivery business volume year-over-year growth for Yto Express Group Co.,Ltd./Yunda Holding Group Co.,Ltd./Sto Express Co.,Ltd./S.F.Holding Co.,Ltd. was +20.81%/+7.56%/+11.90%/+33.69% respectively. Industry business volume year-over-year growth was 15.1%. Yto Express Group Co.,Ltd. and S.F.Holding Co.,Ltd. express delivery business volume year-over-year growth exceeded industry growth, while Yunda Holding Group Co.,Ltd. and Sto Express Co.,Ltd. express delivery business volume year-over-year growth was below industry growth. ②Price: In July 2025, per-ticket revenue year-over-year growth for Yto Express Group Co.,Ltd./Yunda Holding Group Co.,Ltd./Sto Express Co.,Ltd. was -7.14%/-3.54%/-1.50% respectively, with price competition continuing in July.

Risk Warning: Risks of industry growth falling short of expectations, risk of price war resumption, risk of management improvements falling short of expectations, risk of cost control falling short of expectations, risk of franchise partner capacity overload, and uncertainties in overseas market expansion.