Guosen Securities has issued a research report initiating coverage on J&T EXPRESS-W (01519) with a "Buy" rating and a target price of HK$11.37.

According to the report, J&T EXPRESS-W recorded revenue of $5.499 billion in the first half of 2025, representing a 13.1% year-over-year increase. Net profit attributable to shareholders reached $86 million, surging 213% compared to the same period last year. In terms of regional breakdown, China accounted for the highest proportion of revenue at 57%, while Southeast Asia contributed the largest share of profits with an adjusted EBIT contribution ratio of 120%.

The securities firm projects the company's net profit attributable to shareholders to reach $305 million, $525 million, and $825 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively. The target price is based on a 25x price-to-earnings ratio for 2026.

The report highlights that domestic "anti-involution" measures are expected to stabilize per-parcel pricing, while resource investments should drive cost improvements. In the first half of 2025, China region revenue totaled $3.137 billion, up 4.6% year-over-year, with parcel volume reaching 10.6 billion pieces, representing a 20.0% increase.

With provinces like Guangdong leading initiatives to curb excessive competition in the express delivery sector, the decline in industry per-parcel pricing is expected to narrow. The company continues to invest heavily in self-built sorting centers, trunk line vehicles, and automation equipment. The cost gap with peer "Tongda" companies has narrowed to approximately RMB 0.1 per parcel, with potential for a further RMB 0.1 reduction in 2025, which should contribute to improved profitability.