This week, Middle East tensions remain the global focal point. The conflict, marked by intermittent hostilities and the fluctuating status of key straits, continues to evolve rapidly. This situation not only impacts the safety of countless civilians and global energy supplies but also threatens worldwide agricultural production, including in China. The Strait of Hormuz is a critical passage for global oil and gas resources and a major artery for agricultural fertilizer shipments, with about one-third of seaborne fertilizer trade passing through it. Consequently, disruptions in the strait drive up international crude oil prices, leading to increases in agricultural diesel and fertilizer costs.

Domestically, spring planting is now underway nationwide from south to north. The supply and pricing of diesel and fertilizer, the two most essential inputs, are crucial. On a small scale, they affect farmers' planting costs; on a larger scale, they influence this year's grain output. To what extent is the domestic market affected, and are there further measures to help alleviate pressure on farmers?

In Yuncheng, Shanxi, spring planting is ongoing. For Li Sanjun, the primary concern currently is fuel prices. This week, diesel prices rose for the sixth time this year. The retail price for the 0# diesel he uses has reached 8.68 yuan per liter. The fuel tank of his cooperative's agricultural machinery has a standard capacity of 180 liters; filling it now costs nearly 400 yuan more than at the start of the year. In Heihe, Heilongjiang, large tractors, recently serviced, are ready for sowing. A 300-horsepower tractor has a tank capacity exceeding 600 liters, costing over 5,000 yuan to fill—more than 1,000 yuan higher than early this year. Machine operators express that the fuel consumption is genuinely painful.

With increasing agricultural mechanization, machinery is indispensable at every production stage. Many cooperatives have considered raising service fees to offset rising fuel costs. To save money, operators are finding their own solutions. Some cooperatives in Shanxi opt for contiguous field operations to avoid idle machinery from dispersed work. In the northeast, some plan to adjust methods, reserving high-horsepower, fuel-intensive tractors for heavy tasks like deep plowing, while using smaller tractors for lighter work.

To mitigate the impact of international oil price increases, the government continues to implement refined oil price controls. Based on the current pricing mechanism, domestic diesel prices should have increased by 770 yuan per ton starting April 7, but after intervention, the actual rise was limited to 400 yuan. Recently, Shanxi's Department of Agriculture and Rural Affairs issued a notice with PetroChina and Sinopec's local branches to ensure fuel supply for spring planting amidst price fluctuations. Eligible machine operators and cooperatives will receive a dedicated fuel discount of at least 3% off the local retail price, with encouragement for further concessions.

Dong Jianjing, Director of the Agricultural Machinery Management Office, stated that after detailed surveys of major growers and operators, the average per-mu fuel cost for processes like plowing and sowing has increased by approximately 1.3 to 3.3 yuan. Stabilizing fuel prices and reducing costs is urgently needed. The 3% discount is a minimum standard; companies are encouraged to adopt flexible, localized strategies to maximize benefits for farmers. If implemented, Li Sanjun's cooperative could save nearly 47 yuan per tank fill compared to current prices.

In 2022, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs signed agreements with Sinopec and PetroChina, prioritizing discounted fuel for agricultural machinery. This February, Shandong province announced a similar 3% discount scheme. Both Shanxi and Shandong are enhancing "fuel delivery to villages and fields" services. In Shanghai, Sinopec, with local authorities, launched an "Agricultural Support Card" offering a direct discount of 0.3 yuan per liter for eligible farmers.

During this critical farming period, operators hope such benefits will expand to more regions. Last year, China's comprehensive mechanization rate for crops exceeded 76%, with major grains largely fully mechanized. While mechanization is beneficial, this year, more machinery use means greater financial strain due to six diesel price hikes totaling over 2,600 yuan per ton. Every liter of fuel consumed eats into farmers' annual income. Support measures, like the 3% discount, though modest, provide tangible relief, and more such policies are welcomed.

Turning to fertilizers, international prices are soaring, with major agricultural nations like India and Brazil awaiting supplies. How is the domestic situation? In Chongqing, large-scale grower Liao Wukui considers fertilizer the most critical input for spring planting. For 4,000 mu of farmland, each mu requires over 100 jin of compound fertilizer as base application, plus 10-20 jin of urea after rice transplanting. While seasonal price increases are normal, this year's surge is sharper.

Since February, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have impacted shipments from Iran and other Gulf states, key suppliers of urea and sulfur, leading to the sharpest rise in global fertilizer prices in recent years. In contrast, China's fertilizer prices remain relatively stable with moderate increases. Among nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium fertilizers, nitrogen fertilizers, which account for 60% of domestic use, show the most stability. For example, Middle East small-granule urea FOB prices reached $780 per ton this Thursday, double last year's level, while China's wholesale price is 1,900 yuan per ton, only one-third of the international price.

Gu Zongqin, representing the China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association, explained that while international production typically uses natural gas, about 80% of China's nitrogen fertilizer is coal-based, leveraging advanced, self-sufficient coal chemical technology不受 external control. This ensures supply security. Conversely, phosphate fertilizer prices have risen more noticeably due to higher import dependency for sulfur, a key raw material. Fu Chunhua, Vice President of the China Agricultural Means of Production Circulation Association, noted that about 56% of sulfur imports come from the Middle East, significantly affecting production costs.

Nevertheless, domestic phosphate fertilizer price increases remain moderate. According to the association, diammonium phosphate wholesale prices were 4,500 yuan per ton on April 6, up about 12% year-on-year. Experts attribute this stability to the national fertilizer commercial reserve system. On March 13, under pressure from international price transmission, authorities decided to release nearly 10 million tons of nitrogen, phosphate, and compound fertilizer reserves from the 2025/2026 plan ahead of schedule, at least 15 days earlier than usual. Additionally, the association published guided wholesale prices, urging sales not to exceed set levels. The supply and marketing cooperative system imposes stricter price caps, with Chongqing monitoring prices and stocks at 60 points to ensure compliance.

Recent media headlines ask why China remains calm amid global fertilizer shortages. The reasons are twofold: strong domestic production capacity ensures near self-sufficiency across fertilizer types, with urea output comprising one-third of the global total and coal as the primary feedstock, insulating it from natural gas price volatility. Second, the long-established commercial reserve system, supplemented by the recent release of 10 million tons of reserves at stable prices, ensures supply and moderates costs.

Fertilizer is often called the "food of food," underscoring its importance. These factors provide confidence in navigating the global fertilizer crisis. In Hohhot, mid-April is critical for greenhouse vegetable planting. Plastic mulch, essential for crops like cucumbers and tomatoes, is made from polyethylene, a downstream petrochemical product. Crude oil price fluctuations affect mulch costs. Although not leading to losses, villager Yang Linzhi has reduced his greenhouses from six to four due to comprehensive factors. Drip irrigation tape, also polyethylene-based, is similarly impacted.

Stability in agricultural input prices is particularly vital during spring planting. Last week, Hohhot's market regulator issued a notice reminding businesses to price reasonably, avoid sharp increases without cost changes, and refrain from price manipulation, hoarding, or speculation. Enforcement sets a clear line against profiteering to stabilize farmers' expectations. In Sanming, Fujian, agricultural and supply departments use "soft regulation" through transparent information and services, helping farmers reduce costs via accurate data matching instead of blind stockpiling. This transparency allows growers to manage price fluctuations effectively.

The current crisis highlights two realities. First, modern agriculture is no longer just about fieldwork; it depends on chemical plants for fertilizers, refineries for diesel, and the petrochemical chain for mulch. Problems in any link affect the entire sector. Agriculture must focus not only on fields but also on factories and ports, ensuring security across interconnected stages. Second, the world has changed. The belief in a flat global market where shortages are easily addressed through imports is fading amid increasing fragmentation and recurring crises. This necessitates a renewed understanding of agricultural security. Ensuring that 1.4 billion people's food supply remains firmly in their own hands requires constant attention to emerging challenges.