Recent industry analysis from UBS indicates that the potential for price increases in memory chips has expanded further for the second half of 2026.

DDR contract price expectations have been revised upward: a 32% quarter-on-quarter increase is now anticipated for Q3 2026 (up from a prior forecast of 17%), followed by an 18% rise in Q4 (up from 12%). This follows a substantial 67% surge already recorded in the second quarter.

NAND price forecasts have similarly been increased, with expectations for a 30% sequential rise in Q3 and a 12% increase in Q4, continuing the strong cyclical performance.

The analysis suggests that the supply-demand tension in the DRAM industry will persist at least through the first half of 2028. Demand for chips is projected to grow by approximately 36.2% in 2027, significantly outpacing the expected 19.3% growth in supply. This gap is expected to be difficult to close, with the degree of imbalance reaching levels rarely seen over the past three decades. Excluding the potential for downstream inventory restocking, the supply-demand shortfall could widen further from -8.1% in 2026 to -13.6% in 2027.

Overall, the current uptrend in memory chip prices is expected to extend through 2027. Industry revenue is forecast to reach $992 billion in 2026, rising to $1.76 trillion in 2027. However, a key risk lies in the financial capacity of downstream customers, particularly large cloud service providers, who may need to rely on continued capital market financing to support the associated investment expenditures.