Abstract

Mattel will report second-quarter results on August 04, 2026 Post Market; investors will watch whether the company can deliver mid single-digit revenue growth while protecting margins after a challenging holiday season and a mixed start to the year.

Market Forecast

Consensus for the current quarter points to revenue of 1.10 billion US dollars, up 4.94% year over year, adjusted EPS near 0.04 US dollars, and EBIT of 36.38 million US dollars, implying declines of 71.18% and 52.91% year over year for EPS and EBIT, respectively. Forecast detail for gross margin and net margin is not disclosed.

The company’s core portfolio is expected to remain mixed, with momentum in Hot Wheels and steady contributions from Fisher-Price and Thomas partially offsetting Barbie headwinds and cautious retail ordering. The most promising driver remains Hot Wheels, which delivered 314.40 million US dollars in last quarter revenue and continues to carry a leading share of category shelf space and marketing support.

Last Quarter Review

Mattel’s prior quarter delivered revenue of 862.20 million US dollars, gross profit margin of 44.94%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of 61.03 million US dollars with a 7.08% net profit margin, and adjusted EPS of -0.20 US dollars, down 566.67% year over year.

Sequentially, net profit fell 42.53%, underscoring the seasonality of the business and a cautious retail stance early in the year. By business line, Hot Wheels generated 314.40 million US dollars, Barbie 146.10 million US dollars, Fisher-Price and Thomas 79.50 million US dollars, and Other categories 431.90 million US dollars, while total company revenue increased 4.31% year over year.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main Toy Portfolio and Channel Dynamics

The key to this quarter is whether Mattel can translate improving sell-through into shipments that meet or outperform the 1.10 billion US dollar revenue estimate without sacrificing price integrity. Management’s first-quarter print showed solid gross margin at 44.94%, a level that now has to be defended in a quarter still characterized by selective promotions and tight retailer inventory objectives. The EPS and EBIT forecasts indicate margin pressure year over year, which makes mix and operating discipline central to the print.

Retailers have generally run lean on inventory for the past year, which helped the company limit out-of-season discounting but also capped upside in lower-volume quarters. This dynamic likely persisted into the second quarter, shifting the burden to summer resets, newness, and marketing to drive incremental orders. The company’s guidance cadence and commentary around order patterns will be closely scrutinized for signs of resupply ahead of the second half, when the holiday build becomes more visible.

Within the core portfolio, the last quarter’s revenue breakdown helps frame what matters now. Hot Wheels at 314.40 million US dollars remains the largest single brand by quarterly revenue contribution, followed by Other categories at 431.90 million US dollars that aggregate several lines and licensing contributions, Barbie at 146.10 million US dollars, and Fisher-Price and Thomas at 79.50 million US dollars. The mix implies that outperformance in Hot Wheels and steady performance in preschool could offset softness in fashion dolls if Barbie momentum remains below last year’s base.

Content, Licensing, and Higher-Margin Mix

Licensing and content monetization remain critical for earnings resilience in periods when toy shipments are volatile, because licensing carries structurally higher margin than plastic-intensive physical toys. Commentary in recent months continues to emphasize brand equity leverage and a slate of entertainment partnerships expected to support revenue across categories. These activities typically pass through with favorable gross-to-EBIT conversion relative to the base toy business, offering some cushion to the forecasted year-over-year declines in EPS and EBIT.

The pipeline of co-branded content, distribution, and streaming deals broadens the company’s reach beyond traditional retail seasons. That matters this quarter because EBIT is expected at 36.38 million US dollars, and even modest outperformance from licensing can materially affect the drop-through to net income. The degree to which licensing contributes to the “Other” revenue line (431.90 million US dollars last quarter) and the company’s commentary on margin mix will be a key read-through for the back half of the year.

From an execution standpoint, the company’s approach has been to expand multi-platform exposure for its flagship brands, including Hot Wheels and Barbie, while introducing refreshed content for Fisher-Price and Thomas. As distribution agreements scale across streaming and digital channels, the monetization curve often lags viewership by a quarter or two; therefore, investors will look for language that connects current content beats to revenue recognition in the third and fourth quarters. Any incremental color on minimum guarantees, consumer products tie-ins, or renewed license terms can shift expectations for second-half EBIT, especially if commodity costs stabilize.

What Could Move the Stock This Quarter

Relative to the 4.94% expected revenue growth, the most influential swing factors are gross margin trajectory versus last quarter’s 44.94%, the shape of retail order books into September, and the mix between toys and licensing. Beat-and-raise is plausible if Hot Wheels continues to outperform and the company signals firmer orders into late summer, but EBIT guidance will have to reconcile higher marketing costs with the negative year-over-year deltas embedded in current estimates. Conversely, if Barbie resets are slower than anticipated and discounting picks up in late July, the flow-through to EPS could remain constrained even with revenue in line.

Management’s commentary on pricing power and promo cadence will be decisive, especially in view of earlier disclosures that price-sensitive consumers concentrated on discounts during the holiday period. If the company indicates that pricing is holding and retail partners are comfortable entering the holiday build, consensus may migrate toward a more constructive second half, softening the current quarter’s EBIT and EPS headwinds. Sell-through trends captured by retail partners in June and July will likely frame the narrative for mix, with any noted strength in vehicles, preschool, or content-led collectibles seen as incrementally supportive.

Strategic optionality also lingers in the background after shareholder engagement earlier this year raised the profile of potential alternatives; while not a near-term earnings lever, such discussion can interact with rating actions and short-term sentiment around execution. From a trading perspective, the downside skew in EPS versus last year (-71.18% year over year) is well-telegraphed, so the stock may respond more to margin commentary and the path of estimates for the second half than to the headline EPS print itself. A clear link between content monetization and physical product activation for the holiday could be the most influential qualitative takeaway.

Analyst Opinions

Bearish views outweigh bullish commentary in the period reviewed, with negative or cautious opinions representing the majority of collected perspectives relative to positive recommendations. Goldman Sachs downgraded the shares to Sell and lowered its price target, citing concerns around the durability of Barbie demand normalization, the risk that heavier promotions could re-emerge to protect shelf space, and the potential for operating deleverage to weigh on EBIT and EPS versus prior-year comparables. That stance aligns with the current-quarter forecasts that show EPS down 71.18% year over year and EBIT down 52.91% year over year, underscoring a margin and mix debate rather than a pure top-line problem.

Cautious institutional commentary has also emphasized that the first quarter typically represents less than a fifth of annual sales and that investors should not extrapolate early-year upside to the balance of the year without confirming inventory behavior, promo levels, and input costs. The framework is straightforward: with gross margin at 44.94% last quarter, maintaining a similar run-rate through the second quarter while lifting revenue to 1.10 billion US dollars would still leave EBIT and EPS below last year due to heavier media and marketing investment and an unfavorable comparison base. Analysts pointing out this setup expect that even an in-line revenue result could be accompanied by conservative commentary, which would limit near-term estimate revisions.

Bearish previews also focus on category sequencing. Vehicles are positioned to outperform, but bear arguments stress that the delta may not be enough if declines in fashion dolls remain pronounced. The “Other” line at 431.90 million US dollars is seen as diversified but partially reliant on cyclical discretionary categories that can be more price elastic in a cautious consumer environment. If channel checks reflect ongoing conservatism by retail buyers and a need to manage working capital tightly ahead of the holiday season, bears argue that the company may protect its brands with tactical promotions, putting renewed pressure on EBIT flow-through.

From a valuation and sentiment perspective, the negative skew is reinforced by the downgrade alongside lingering concerns from the post-holiday reset earlier this year, when management acknowledged a consumer tilt toward discounts and retailer caution. Bears argue that, given the forecasts already embed mid single-digit revenue growth, the hurdle for a “clean” beat is not low on margins. In their view, investors will want clear evidence that pricing discipline and licensing contribution can offset any softness in dolls, without sacrificing market share in key aisles.

The core of the bearish case this quarter is therefore not an outright demand collapse, but a debate about the profit algorithm at this stage of the year: with EBIT and EPS implied to be down sharply year over year, the company must deliver efficient marketing, tight cost control, and a favorable mix shift to licensing to change the trajectory of estimates. Until there is clearer evidence that these conditions hold, the majority of institutional commentary remains guarded into the print, framing the setup as balanced on revenue but challenged on margins and earnings.