According to the commodity cobalt market analysis system from Business Society, the cobalt price on July 22 was 355,900 yuan per ton, representing a significant decline of 7.27% compared to the price of 383,800 yuan per ton on July 10.

Starting from mid-July, cobalt prices experienced a substantial drop. As the pace of decline has moderated, price pressure has become evident. The overall domestic cobalt market is characterized by a pattern described as "low-level stalemate, weak and stable operation," although support from underlying costs is gradually strengthening.

Supply Dynamics: Concentrated Arrival of Cobalt Raw Materials from Congo

Customs data indicates that China's imports of cobalt raw materials surged in June 2026. Imports of intermediate cobalt hydrometallurgical products reached 10,960.945 tons, a month-on-month increase of 324.12%. Imports of unwrought cobalt were 1,120.108 tons, up 66.43% month-on-month and 104.64% year-on-year. Imports of cobalt tetroxide amounted to 2.123 tons.

With cobalt raw materials from the Democratic Republic of Congo arriving in batches in June, import volumes grew significantly. A concentrated arrival of Congolese cobalt raw materials is anticipated for July and August, leading to increased supply and heightened downward pressure on cobalt prices.

In 2025, China's supply of recycled cobalt was approximately 23,000 metal tons. For 2026, the supply in the first half of the year has already reached 21,000 metal tons, with an annual forecast of 45,000 to 50,000 metal tons. This is expected to meet about 35% of China's cobalt demand. The substantial growth in recycled cobalt has greatly alleviated supply shortages in the cobalt market.

Market Summary and Future Outlook

Analysts from Business Society's data team believe that the significant increase in China's cobalt raw material imports in June, coupled with the ongoing and expected concentrated arrival of materials from the Congo in July and August, has boosted market supply. Combined with the growth in recycled cobalt easing supply constraints, the overall supply has surged, leading to a sharp decline in cobalt prices.

As prices fall and Congolese raw materials arrive, downstream enterprises in the domestic cobalt market may engage in concentrated inventory replenishment. This could trigger a brief surge in demand, stimulating a price increase.

In summary, the concentrated arrival of Congolese cobalt raw materials is causing a temporary oversupply in the market. However, as downstream companies restock, demand is expected to recover, potentially leading cobalt prices to stabilize and rebound.

Related listed companies include Huayou Cobalt (603799), Hanrui Cobalt (300618), and China Molybdenum Co., Ltd. (603993).