Shanghai nickel trend: In the afternoon session today, Shanghai nickel futures fell. The main contract for June 2024 (2606) opened at 148,200 yuan per ton, reaching a session high of 149,350 yuan and a low of 143,800 yuan. It closed at 145,280 yuan per ton, down 1,750 yuan, a decline of 1.19%. Trading volume for the main June 2606 contract was 394,725 lots.

According to statistics: On May 12th, the ccmn Changjiang Composite 1# nickel price was quoted at 145,300 - 147,300 yuan per ton, with an average price of 146,300 yuan, down 2,300 yuan from the previous day. The Changjiang spot 1# nickel price was quoted at 145,500 - 146,700 yuan per ton, with an average price of 146,100 yuan, down 2,600 yuan from the previous day. Guangdong spot nickel was quoted at 149,350 - 149,750 yuan per ton, with an average price of 149,550 yuan, down 150 yuan from the previous day.

Nickel market analysis: On May 12th, nickel prices surged and then retreated rapidly, highlighting a pattern of high-level volatility. This is driven by a dual tug-of-war between domestic and international macro expectations and industry supply-demand dynamics, with intensifying divergence between bullish and bearish views becoming the market's main theme. The release of the US April CPI data tonight has rapidly heightened market caution. Fluctuations in the US dollar index and stock markets are suppressing risk assets, thereby weakening the momentum for a nickel price rebound.

Domestically, China's April CPI showed a moderate recovery while PPI growth expanded. Expectations for a recovery in domestic demand provide some support for nickel prices. However, with conflicting macro signals, market sentiment struggles to form a unified force, directly contributing to the price surge and subsequent retreat.

Supply and demand show a divergent trend: Overseas nickel ore shipments remain steady, but port inventories are low. Supply of nickel pig iron and high-grade nickel matte is increasing with the release of smelting capacity. Downstream stainless steel demand is weak. While demand for nickel sulfate used in new energy batteries provides some support, the incremental growth is limited, leaving the overall industry chain in a state of fragile balance.

Amid today's high-level volatility, spot market trading was cautious. Traders mostly purchased based on immediate needs, speculative demand cooled, and trading activity was not high.

Short-term outlook: Volatile pattern likely to persist before data release From May 12th to 13th, the market will focus on the US CPI data, with macro sentiment remaining the core variable for nickel price fluctuations. In the short term, nickel prices may maintain a high-level volatile trend. The upside is capped by a stronger US dollar and weak downstream demand, while downside finds support from expectations of domestic macro recovery. Operationally, it is advised to watch for directional cues after the data release and remain vigilant against volatility risks.