According to a research report released by GTHT, evolving market conditions are expected to boost compliance demand, accelerate the retirement of aging vessels, and drive an ultra-strong, sustainable cycle. The tanker shipping sector has already entered a period of high prosperity. The escalation of tensions in the Middle East in 2026 could provide an opportunity for changes in the grey market landscape. The report suggests that the continued impact of grey market shifts could lead to an exceptionally strong and durable tanker shipping cycle, offering dual upside potential for both earnings and valuations.

Freight rate tracking: tanker rates hit successive new highs, while container rates on the Europe route weaken and US routes continue to climb.

First, on the crude oil tanker front, compliant tonnage inefficiencies and strong shipowner confidence have pushed rates to record levels consecutively. Geopolitical factors are reinforcing the long-term bullish narrative. Second, for refined oil product tankers, trade recovery in the Asia-Pacific region, along with consecutive rate increases on eastbound routes, reflects the ongoing long-term trend of refinery capacity shifting eastward. Third, in the dry bulk segment, weaker iron ore cargo volumes in the Pacific region have led to a slight pullback in rates from elevated levels, with attention turning to the Simandou output ramp-up. Finally, container freight rates show a steady peak-season cargo flow, with rates on the Europe route continuing to decline, while Panama Canal drought conditions support further gains on US routes.

Tanker shipping: a two-phase path to a "super bull market."

The first phase has been driven by geopolitical conflicts reshaping global crude trade flows, as Russia and Europe engage in longer-haul "roundabout" routes, fueling a cross-year tanker market uptrend lasting over three years and pushing capacity utilisation to critical thresholds. The second phase is now unfolding, as a global rise in crude production drives continued demand growth for tanker shipping. With rigid constraints on effective fleet supply, the supply-demand balance is set to improve further, sustaining the upward trajectory and incorporating a potential upside surprise from grey market developments.

Dry bulk: the onset of long-haul iron ore production increases is set to gradually lift the market.

During 2021-2022, spillover demand from the ultra-strong container market supported dry bulk rate performance through container-to-bulk vessel conversions. In 2023-2024, post-pandemic recovery growth drove a moderate improvement in dry bulk shipping sentiment. With a new global iron ore production upswing now underway—particularly the Simandou mega-project, which has begun operations and will continue to expand—there are expectations for stronger-than-expected demand growth. Combined with low supply growth in the coming years, the market is poised for a gradual cyclical recovery.

Container shipping: tariff easing returns to a new normal, with focus on the evolving China-US trade landscape.

Two rounds of high prosperity over the past five years have raised the industry's profitability baseline. In the first half of 2025, China-US tariff frictions caused sharp short-term volatility in trade and freight rates, but by Q3, trade normalised and the peak season on mainline routes proved underwhelming. In the coming years, mainline routes will face renewed vessel upsizing and supply pressure. The suspension of the 301 sanctions aligns with market expectations, and the focus now shifts to the new China-US trade structure and the economic implications of energy pressures. The report continues to recommend monitoring structural growth opportunities within the container shipping market.

Key risks: economic downturns, geopolitical volatility, and stricter environmental policy enforcement.