A report from Central China Securities indicates that the overall performance of the 2026 Lunar New Year film season fell short of market expectations due to multiple factors. On the other hand, the diminished drawing power of major holiday periods may prompt film producers to refine their productions further, relying on quality to stimulate demand. Simultaneously, there will be an accelerated shift within the industry towards investments in diversified channels such as IP development, merchandise, and offline location-based entertainment. This transition aims to optimize profit structures, moving from revenue growth driven solely by box office returns to growth driven by the operation of content IP across the entire industry chain. On the technological front, the use of capabilities like AI video models can optimize the production process of film and television content, reducing costs and improving efficiency. The report recommends focusing on film and television content companies with competitive advantages in areas like high-quality content creation, IP incubation, and merchandise licensing, as well as leading cinema chains that demonstrate high operational efficiency and a significant proportion of non-box-office revenue. Key points from Central China Securities are as follows:

Box office revenue, audience numbers, and average ticket prices all declined. The total box office for the 2026 Lunar New Year season (February 17 to February 23) was 5.697 billion yuan (including service fees), a decrease of 40.09% year-on-year. The number of moviegoers was 119 million, down 36.36% year-on-year, while the average ticket price was 47.87 yuan, a reduction of 5.86% compared to the previous year. These figures not only represent a significant decline from 2025 but also place this year's performance among the lowest for the same period since 2018, clearly underperforming market expectations. Reasons cited include: (1) a high base effect from the 2025 Lunar New Year season; (2) the longer holiday period in 2026 increasing travel demand, which diverted or postponed movie-going interest; (3) a mismatch between film content and holiday audience preferences; and (4) competition from other forms of entertainment drawing audiences away from cinemas.

While the number of screenings hit a new high, attendance rates dropped sharply. A total of 3.88 million film screenings were held during the 2026 Lunar New Year holiday, an increase of 15.24% year-on-year, with a daily average of 554,300 screenings, also up 15.24%, reaching the highest level in recent years. However, calculated based on audience numbers and screenings, the average attendance per screening in 2026 was 30.67 people, a decline of 44.78% year-on-year. This drop was more pronounced than the decrease in total audience numbers, leading to a significant fall in cinema occupancy rates, which fell from 43.3% in 2025 to 22.2% in 2026.

'Pegasus 3' continued to lead, highlighting a box office gap. 'Pegasus 3' earned nearly 2.927 billion yuan during the holiday period, accounting for 50.8% of the total box office—significantly higher than its 31.6% share of screenings. Its occupancy rate of 28.1% was also higher than that of other films during the same period. 'Awakening Silence' generated 867 million yuan in box office revenue, representing a 15% share. 'Biao Ren: Desert Storm' and 'Boonie Bears: Forever' earned 806 million yuan and 713 million yuan, respectively, accounting for 15.2% and 11.8% of the total. In terms of box office distribution, only 'Pegasus 3' approached the 3-billion-yuan mark, leaving a gap in the 1-billion to 3-billion-yuan range and indicating a clear disparity among films released during the Lunar New Year season.

Risks include potential shortfalls in film content quality and a decline in demand for content consumption.