On February 4th, a report released by the China National Petroleum Corporation Economics & Technology Research Institute, a national high-end think tank, indicates that China's energy self-sufficiency rate climbed to 84.4% in 2025, with non-fossil fuels accounting for 21.8% of energy consumption. Wind and solar power have become the primary contributors to the increase in electricity supply. The share of non-fossil energy consumption is projected to exceed 23% in 2026. The "Seven-Year Action Plan" concluded successfully in 2025, with oil and gas output reaching a record high of 420 million tons of oil equivalent. Crude oil production is expected to remain stable at 200 million tons in 2026, while natural gas output continues its rapid growth. Furthermore, Chinese companies have achieved significant results in increasing overseas reserves and production, with overseas equity output rising to 196 million tons in 2025. By deepening whole-industry-chain cooperation, acquiring high-quality assets, and accelerating integration with new energy sources, overseas equity output is anticipated to surpass 200 million tons in 2026.

The report reveals that China's petroleum consumption reached 762 million tons in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.1%. The consumption structure was characterized by a decline in gasoline and diesel, a rise in jet fuel, and a substantial increase in chemical light oil. In 2026, total petroleum consumption is expected to remain largely stable, with the trend of "declining fuel oil, rising chemical use" becoming more pronounced. Demand for chemical feedstocks is emerging as a new engine for growth. China's natural gas consumption amounted to 432 billion cubic meters in 2025, with usage in transportation growing by over 10%, while consumption in industrial and power generation sectors showed steady growth. Natural gas consumption is forecast to be between 450 and 455 billion cubic meters in 2026, reaching approximately 550 billion cubic meters by 2030.

The report also discusses how China's refining industry evolved within controlled total capacity and optimized through structural adjustments in 2025, with refining capacity entering a plateau period. The self-sufficiency rate for basic petrochemical products increased to 80%. In 2026, structural optimization within the industry is set to continue, with an estimated addition of 15 million tons per year of new refining capacity and 19 million tons per year of new basic petrochemical capacity. Significant progress has been made in the domestic substitution of new materials, accelerating the industry's transition towards higher-end and more specialized production.