Market Analysis: On Tuesday, May 13th, the gold market experienced significant volatility. Spot gold initially surged to a three-week high of $4,773.37 per ounce before weakening and oscillating. Following the release of strong U.S. CPI data, it hit a low near $4,638.40, ultimately closing at $4,715.07, down approximately 0.4%. U.S. gold futures fell 0.9% to $4,686.70. While this appears to be a short-term correction, it reflects the combined pressure from surging oil prices, persistent inflation, and interest rate expectations, which are reshaping the investment rationale for gold.
The future direction of gold prices will depend on the outcome of the ongoing stagflation tussle. If high inflation persists alongside a significant economic slowdown, forcing central banks into a dilemma between controlling inflation and avoiding recession, gold's safe-haven attributes will ultimately prevail. Conversely, if central banks continue to raise interest rates under inflationary pressure, gold will face further short-term downward pressure. However, gold has not lost all its appeal. As long as the Middle East conflict shows no substantive easing, risks of global supply chain disruptions will persist; as long as inflation fails to quickly fall back to the Federal Reserve's 2% target range, the ground for safe-haven demand remains. The current intense fluctuation of gold prices within the $4,600-$4,800 range provides a potential entry window for medium- to long-term investors. Ordinary investors should closely monitor oil price trends, statements from Federal Reserve officials, and the outcomes of high-level meetings between China and the U.S.
Gold Market Technical Analysis: Gold is strong, but avoid chasing highs; focus on these key levels within the consolidation range! When discussing gold previously, two key points were emphasized: first, while gold appears to have a strong trend, one must not blindly chase the rally as a corrective pullback is possible at any time; second, the levels at $4,772 and $4,765 are prone to forming a double-top pattern, with a high probability of subsequent retreat to areas near $4,710 and $4,650.
Today's market movement unfolded exactly as anticipated! After completing its adjustment during the day, gold stabilized and rebounded from $4,640 during the midnight session, finally closing steadily near $4,725. It is evident that gold overall maintains a strong, oscillating upward rhythm. Therefore, the trading perspective for Wednesday remains consistent: recognize gold's current strong momentum but avoid excessive bullishness and blind entry, while remaining vigilant about the risk of interim corrective declines.
From a technical perspective, both the daily and 4-hour chart patterns are in a state of consolidation, showing no clear signals of a unilateral uptrend or downtrend; the overall movement is range-bound. For trading, focus on three key levels: upper resistance at $4,765 and $4,850—these are hurdles for upward movement, and whether they can be broken is crucial; lower support at $4,650—if this level holds, significant downside space is limited. Trading around these levels in conjunction with real-time market fluctuations is sufficient; there is no need to overcomplicate the analysis.
Silver Market Technical Analysis: Silver is stronger than gold; avoid greed at high levels and wait for the right entry points! Silver also experienced a minor correction yesterday, falling to a low near 83, but its overall trend is much stronger than gold's! After the pullback, it rebounded swiftly and continued to set new highs, rising directly above 87, demonstrating exceptionally strong momentum.