T-Mobile US Q2 2025 Earnings Call Summary and Q&A Highlights: Record Postpaid Net Additions and Strategic Acquisitions

Earnings Call
07-24

[Management View]
T-Mobile US raised its full-year 2025 guidance across several metrics, reflecting record-setting postpaid net additions in Q2 2025 and strong service revenue growth. Leadership emphasized strategic expansion through acquisitions, including MetroNet and UScellular, as well as network investments, including the commercial launch of T-Satellite in Q2 2025 and extensive greenfield builds with plans to bring on nearly 4,000 sites in 2025. The company highlighted accelerated digital transformation, a broadening premium ARPA mix, and entry into new business adjacencies through partnerships and fiber.

[Outlook]
Management expects core adjusted EBITDA to be between $33.3 and $33.7 billion for the full year 2025, an increase of $100 million at the lower end of the range. Adjusted free cash flow guidance increased to $17.6 billion–$18.0 billion, up $100 million at the lower end. The UScellular transaction is set to close on Aug. 1, expanding site coverage by one third and increasing capacity in the combined footprint by 50% or more. The divestiture of 800 MHz licenses to Grain Management is expected to close in Q4 2025 or Q1 2026, generating approximately $850 million in incremental income taxes after the close.

[Financial Performance]
Postpaid service revenues grew 9% year over year in Q2 2025, an acceleration from Q1. Total service revenues grew 6%, well over double the rate of closest competitors. Core adjusted EBITDA growth was 6% year over year. Achieved a record $4.6 billion in adjusted free cash flow (non-GAAP) in Q2 2025.

[Q&A Highlights]
Question 1: You guys saw strong sub growth in the quarter despite slightly higher churn. Could you give us an idea of what you're seeing in the market today? How you expect churn to trend in the second half and what you're seeing just from a competitive standpoint? (Line breaks here)
Answer: Srini Gopalan explained that T-Mobile US thrives in a dynamic competitive market, emphasizing the company's unique proposition of best network, best value, and best experience. Despite higher churn in Q2 due to rate plan optimizations, management anticipates churn to be down sequentially in Q3 and potentially slightly up year over year.

Question 2: Thanks for the disclosure on the fiber side. Can you give us a little more color on that? Is that sort of a fifty thousand run rate for the next two quarters, or does that include some of the growth we saw here in the second quarter? And do you anticipate other opportunities for inorganic growth in that business? (Line breaks here)
Answer: Mike Katz detailed that the hundred thousand fiber net additions for the year come from both joint ventures and wholesale markets. The MetroNet deal closes tomorrow, and T-Fiber will be commercially launched in those markets later this year. The company remains open to inorganic growth opportunities.

Question 3: Reflecting back on your Capital Markets Day last September to now, one metric that really jumps out is the ARPA growth. Could you unpack a little bit of the drivers there and whether you're more optimistic about growth in that line and service revenue over the next couple of years? (Line breaks here)
Answer: Peter Osvaldik highlighted that ARPA growth is driven by rate plan optimizations and customers selecting higher-tier plans. The company is not updating long-term guidance but is focused on maintaining momentum in 2025.

Question 4: You talked about only twenty percent of switchers perceiving T-Mobile US as having the best network. What do you think you need to do to improve that? Is it leaning on advertising, or what can shift it up even further? (Line breaks here)
Answer: Mike Katz and Jon Freier emphasized the importance of advertising, customer experience, and continuing to expand network leadership. High-profile endorsements from large enterprise and government customers also play a significant role in improving network perception.

Question 5: You just talked about T-Satellite. Can you dig into that a little bit and the contribution it had to your ARPU growth and how it changes the way you think about serving rural markets and customer segments? (Line breaks here)
Answer: Mike Sievert explained that T-Satellite is available to everyone at $10 a month and is expected to drive deeper customer relationships. The service is particularly beneficial for customers in rural areas, complementing the company's greenfield builds and UScellular acquisition.

Question 6: Can you give us an update on how many locations you pass in the MetroNet and Lumos markets at the moment and what penetration is on those assets? (Line breaks here)
Answer: Srini Gopalan and Mike Katz discussed the company's broadband ambitions, equating its combined FWA and fiber strategies to the equivalent of forty to forty-five million homes passed. MetroNet outperformed deal expectations, and the company remains open to further investments in fiber.

Question 7: A few years back, you noted a goal of reaching twenty percent market share in smaller markets by 2025. Have you reached that goal, and where could it go? Does UScellular change that calculus? (Line breaks here)
Answer: Jon Freier confirmed that T-Mobile US has surpassed twenty percent share of households in smaller markets and rural areas. The UScellular acquisition and ongoing network investments are expected to further accelerate growth in these areas.

Question 8: What are you seeing that's driving the ongoing momentum in 5G broadband and FWA? Are you seeing evidence that FWA may move from a fallow capacity model to one in which you can invest in specific capacity enhancements for additional growth and returns over time? (Line breaks here)
Answer: Srini Gopalan explained that the center of gravity remains the fallow capacity model, with ongoing efforts to squeeze more out of existing spectrum and towers. The company is also exploring smart ways to allocate capital for additional growth.

Question 9: Can you update us on where you view T-Mobile US as being on the insurgent versus steward spectrum? How much more runway is there to be disruptive without disrupting the balance for the broader industry? (Line breaks here)
Answer: Mike Sievert emphasized that T-Mobile US remains the value leader and net share taker, competing hard while building a profitable company. The strategy has room to run, leveraging long-term durable advantages built on superior customer propositions.

Question 10: Can you provide some commentary on the interest and demand you are seeing from enterprises for slicing and T-Satellite? What is the profile of such customers and use cases? (Line breaks here)
Answer: Callie Field highlighted the strong interest from first responders, state and local municipalities, and enterprises in sectors like oil and gas. T-Satellite and slicing offer guaranteed service levels for mission-critical connectivity, benefiting both customers and the broader community.

[Sentiment Analysis]
The tone of the analysts was inquisitive and focused on understanding the drivers behind T-Mobile US's strong performance and future growth prospects. Management was confident and enthusiastic, emphasizing strategic initiatives and long-term opportunities.

[Quarterly Comparison]
| Metric | Q2 2025 | Q1 2025 | YoY Change |
|-------------------------------|---------------|---------------|---------------|
| Postpaid Net Additions | Record | High | Up |
| Postpaid Service Revenue | +9% | +6% | Accelerated |
| Total Service Revenue | +6% | +3% | Accelerated |
| Core Adjusted EBITDA | +6% | +5% | Accelerated |
| Adjusted Free Cash Flow | $4.6 billion | $4.5 billion | Record |

[Risks and Concerns]
- Competitive market dynamics and potential impacts on churn and customer acquisition costs.
- Execution risks related to the integration of acquisitions like UScellular and MetroNet.
- Regulatory and legislative changes impacting cash tax benefits and spectrum license transactions.

[Final Takeaway]
T-Mobile US delivered a record-setting Q2 2025, raising full-year guidance across several key metrics. The company's strategic acquisitions, network investments, and digital transformation initiatives are driving strong performance and positioning it for continued growth. Management's focus on maintaining a balanced approach to competition and profitability underscores the long-term potential of T-Mobile US's differentiated value proposition. Investors should monitor the integration of recent acquisitions and the execution of strategic initiatives to assess the company's ability to sustain its momentum and unlock further shareholder value.

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