On August 4th, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction is experiencing subtle changes. Last Friday (August 1st), two heavyweight Fed officials - Bowman and Waller - publicly expressed opposition to maintaining current interest rates unchanged, citing concerns about potential risks in the U.S. employment market. Meanwhile, high tariff policies and global economic uncertainties have cast a shadow over Fed decision-making. Following the release of latest employment data, the concerns of these two officials appear to have been validated, while internal Fed disagreements have sparked widespread debate about future policy direction.

During last week's Fed policy meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to maintain the benchmark rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%. However, this decision did not achieve consensus among all members. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman and Governor Waller clearly expressed support for rate cuts, issuing statements on Friday outlining their positions. Both officials agreed that signs of labor market weakness are emerging, and the Fed needs to take more proactive action to prevent further economic slowdown.

In her statement, Bowman noted that U.S. economic growth has significantly decelerated this year, with increasingly evident signs of weakening labor market vitality. She believes the Fed's current policy stance is "mildly restrictive," and continuing to maintain high interest rates may exacerbate economic weakness risks. Bowman advocates for gradually adjusting rates to a "neutral level" - neither stimulating nor constraining economic growth - to hedge against potential further labor market deterioration. She emphasized this adjustment represents a "proactive" strategy that can provide economic buffer space and avoid more severe recession.

From a technical perspective, London gold is currently trading around $3,353 per ounce, with weekly charts showing a V-shaped reversal and breakthrough above the 50-week moving average ($3,342). The $3,340 level serves as the middle Bollinger Band and represents key short-term support, validated by the August 4th low of $3,344. Historical resistance exists near $3,373, where multiple highs have formed since June 20th. Breaking this level requires caution regarding selling pressure from the dense trading zone around $3,500 from late April.

Regarding entry and stop-loss settings, the $3,340-43 range above support levels aligns with bullish momentum logic. However, London gold's recent volatility stands at 2.49%, with daily average fluctuations around $83. A $10 stop-loss (presumably at $3,330) may be too tight, and adjustments should consider 4-hour chart volatility compression to avoid normal market fluctuation stops. Target levels of $3,370-73 require attention to breakout validity; if accompanied by volume expansion, the upper Bollinger Band at $3,415 becomes viable.

For Fibonacci retracement levels, using the July 31st low of $3,294 to the August 3rd high of $3,362 as the upward wave, the 61.8% retracement sits around $3,320, differing from suggested European-American session pullback entry levels. Historical data shows that approximately 65% of similar V-shaped reversals experience 3%-5% corrective pullbacks, making $3,320 a secondary long entry point.

Fundamentally, London gold has accumulated gains of 28.51% in 2025, with U.S. debt concerns and de-dollarization trends providing long-term support. However, short-term attention should focus on Fed policy developments. If the August meeting releases dovish signals, breakout momentum may strengthen; conversely, profit-taking by bulls could trigger pullbacks.

Operationally, a two-step approach is recommended: establish light long positions at $3,340-43 during early trading with stops near $3,330. If price breaks above $3,373 and holds, add positions during European-American session pullbacks to $3,355-60 (38.2% retracement), targeting the $3,400 psychological level. Monitor gold ETF holdings changes - if SPDR shows consecutive 3-day increases, this confirms bullish sentiment strengthening.

It's important to note that current prices still have room toward the 2025 upper limit of $3,600. However, the market structure showing no 10%+ corrections in 400 days suggests volatility may intensify, making strict position control within 5% essential.