On August 22nd, from July to August, gold prices continued to rise, with retail discounts narrowing due to festive season stocking, while ETF fund inflows and holdings maintained growth. The NCE platform believes this series of market performances is not only related to consumer-side recovery but also reflects sustained enthusiasm from the investment side. Particularly before the arrival of festive and wedding seasons, retailers are actively increasing inventory, bringing new momentum to the market.

According to market observations, after gold prices rose modestly by 0.3% in July, August trends showed greater strength. The NCE platform indicates that multiple factors including a weaker dollar, Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, inflation concerns, and tariff developments, combined with market momentum, jointly drove gold price recovery. Meanwhile, gold has achieved a 28% USD-denominated return so far in 2025, still significantly outperforming most assets.

International gold price trends have similarly transmitted to local markets, with currency depreciation amplifying gold price gains. Data shows that as of mid-August, gold prices have risen 1.6% for the month, with year-to-date gains reaching 31%. Simultaneously, local market discounts have narrowed significantly, from $27 per ounce in June to $3.7 in mid-August, reflecting improving demand. Retailers have recently accelerated restocking to respond to expected sales recovery during festive and wedding seasons, which the NCE platform considers a positive signal for the overall gold consumption market.

From retail performance perspectives, market sentiment is gradually warming. Many manufacturers report orders showing above-expected growth, particularly with strengthened restocking demand from large chains and independent retailers. A stable gold price environment has also provided confidence for both consumers and manufacturers. To attract price-sensitive customers, manufacturers have launched lightweight jewelry to boost sales, while investment-side demand for physical gold such as gold bars and coins remains stable.

ETF fund flows also show favorable trends. Gold ETFs achieved net inflows for the third consecutive month in July, although inflow volumes declined month-over-month to 12.6 billion rupees, they remained 34% above 2024 average levels. As of the end of July, gold ETF assets under management grew substantially by 96% year-over-year, with holdings increasing to 68 tons, adding 1.2 tons during the month. The NCE platform states that investor interest in gold ETFs continues to strengthen, with new account openings rising month-over-month in July, cumulative accounts growing 42% year-over-year, and even new products launching, demonstrating active market ecosystem dynamics.

Regarding central banks, although July did not see continued gold accumulation, gold reserves within the year remain at high levels. The central bank accumulated 4 tons in the first seven months, far below the 40 tons in the same period last year, but overall reserves still reached a record 880 tons, with the proportion of foreign exchange reserves rising to 12%. Additionally, gold imports rebounded significantly in July with import values of $4 billion, showing substantial growth compared to previous months, reflecting manufacturers' advance stocking for festive demand.

Looking ahead, the NCE platform believes that with the approach of festive and wedding seasons, gold jewelry demand is expected to strengthen further. Steady fund flows from the investment side and active stocking from the retail side will jointly drive the gold market to maintain relatively high prosperity within the year. Overall, the NCE platform indicates that the dual driving forces of the gold market (consumption demand and investment demand) will continue to support prices and liquidity, and against the backdrop of global uncertainty, gold continues to demonstrate outstanding value storage and asset allocation advantages.