Interest rate strategists at Morgan Stanley believe that US Treasury options pricing suggests the government shutdown that began on October 1st will last at least 10 days, with a maximum duration of up to 29 days.

US Treasury futures options are "pricing in risk premiums around key economic data release dates," strategist Shaun Zhou said in a report.

This includes the release date for the monthly employment report, one of America's most important economic indicators. Due to the government shutdown, the September nonfarm payrolls data scheduled for release at 8:30 AM Eastern Time on Friday was not published. Additionally, this includes the September Consumer Price Index data that should be released on October 15th.

The strategist wrote that while the final release dates for delayed economic indicators remain unclear, "options markets will price risk premiums for multiple future dates based on probability distributions."

Morgan Stanley calculated that options imply a greater than 60% probability of a shutdown lasting 10 to 29 days. The probability of a 4 to 9-day closure is slightly above 20%, while the likelihood of lasting at least 30 days is approximately 10%.

The firm's report also noted that prediction betting platform PolyMarket similarly considers a 10 to 29-day government shutdown most likely, though it assigns higher probabilities to longer closure periods.