Geopolitical tensions escalating and rising inflation risks have pushed the benchmark 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the US higher this week, reaching its highest level in nearly 11 months. Market analysis indicates that geopolitical conflicts are driving up energy costs, thereby fueling inflation expectations, which is the primary factor keeping mortgage rates elevated recently.

According to the latest survey data from Freddie Mac, the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose to 6.58% for the week ending, up from 6.55% the previous week. This marks the highest level since August 2025. A year ago, the rate stood at 6.74%. Simultaneously, the average rate on a 15-year fixed mortgage also increased to 5.96% from 5.93% last week.

Sam Khater, chief economist at Freddie Mac, noted that the current market environment continues to evolve, and borrowers who compare rate options can achieve considerable cost savings. Industry experts further analyze that while the Federal Reserve does not directly set mortgage rates, their movement is closely tied to the yield on the 10-year US Treasury note. As the Middle East conflict intensifies and crude oil prices rise, renewed market concerns that higher energy costs will push future inflation higher are causing both Treasury yields and mortgage rates to climb together.

Regarding housing supply and prices, Realtor.com's mid-year 2026 US housing market forecast update projects that national home prices will increase by just 1.2% this year. Analysts suggest that this growth rate is below the current headline inflation level, meaning that inflation-adjusted real home prices are experiencing a substantial decline. This could potentially provide some relief for buyer affordability.