Coal stocks continued their recent gains in Hong Kong trading. At the time of writing, MONGOL MINING (00975) rose 5.15% to HK$12.65; YANKUANG ENERGY (01171) advanced 4.38% to HK$13.36; KINETIC DEV (01277) increased 3.23% to HK$1.92; YANCOAL AUS (03668) climbed 2.36% to HK$33.78; and CHINA COAL (01898) gained 2.11% to HK$12.58.

The rally follows reports that Indonesian mining officials announced on February 3 a suspension of spot coal exports due to the government's proposed significant production cuts. Additionally, production quotas issued to major miners last month were reduced by 40% to 70% compared to full-year 2025 levels, as part of the country's plan to support coal prices.

In a research note, Great Wall Securities stated that the logic of supply constraints driving coal prices higher has once again been validated. Domestically, supply tightened rapidly in the second half of 2025 through stricter oversight of mine overproduction, leading Qinhuangdao thermal coal prices to climb from a low of 609 yuan per ton to 834 yuan per ton. Overseas, coal price trends have followed a similar pattern, with major exporters like Indonesia seeking to lift prices to improve corporate earnings and boost fiscal revenue. Recent policy moves by the Indonesian government indicate that supply reduction has become a key tool to drive prices upward.

Taking both domestic and international factors into account, analysts conclude that current coal prices remain relatively low and still fall short of reasonable levels, supporting the view that policy-driven supply cuts will continue to push prices higher.