As you might know, Pembina Pipeline Corporation (TSE:PPL) last week released its latest quarterly, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. It wasn't a great result overall - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at CA$1.8b, statutory earnings missed forecasts by 17%, coming in at just CA$0.60 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for Pembina Pipeline

Taking into account the latest results, the seven analysts covering Pembina Pipeline provided consensus estimates of CA$8.65b revenue in 2025, which would reflect a definite 12% decline over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to rise 3.2% to CA$3.29. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of CA$8.73b and earnings per share (EPS) of CA$3.39 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at CA$61.13, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Pembina Pipeline analyst has a price target of CA$67.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at CA$55.00. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 10.0% annualised decline to the end of 2025. That is a notable change from historical growth of 8.8% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 1.3% per year. It's pretty clear that Pembina Pipeline's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Pembina Pipeline. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at CA$61.13, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Pembina Pipeline going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Pembina Pipeline that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.