Last week saw the newest third-quarter earnings release from Modiv Industrial, Inc. (NYSE:MDV), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. Revenues came in at US$12m, in line with estimates, while Modiv Industrial reported a statutory loss of US$0.18 per share, well short of prior analyst forecasts for a profit. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Modiv Industrial

Following last week's earnings report, Modiv Industrial's three analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be US$47.5m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to plummet 54% to US$0.11 in the same period. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$47.0m and US$0.13 per share in losses. While there's been no material change to the revenue estimates, there's been a pretty clear upgrade to earnings estimates, with the analysts expecting a per-share profit compared to previous expectations of a loss. So it seems like the latest results have led to a significant increase in sentiment for Modiv Industrial.

The consensus price target was unchanged at US$18.33, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Modiv Industrial, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$19.00 and the most bearish at US$18.00 per share. This is a very narrow spread of estimates, implying either that Modiv Industrial is an easy company to value, or - more likely - the analysts are relying heavily on some key assumptions.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Modiv Industrial's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We would highlight that Modiv Industrial's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 0.4% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 11% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 3.8% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than Modiv Industrial.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts now expect Modiv Industrial to become profitable next year, compared to previous expectations that it would report a loss. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Modiv Industrial's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$18.33, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Modiv Industrial. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Modiv Industrial going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Plus, you should also learn about the 4 warning signs we've spotted with Modiv Industrial (including 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.