Evie Liu

Shares of beer maker Constellation Brands tumbled about 4% on Tuesday as investors fear that potential tariffs on Mexican goods could force the company to raise prices.

President-elect Donald Trump said on Monday that his incoming administration plans to impose a 25% new tariff on imported goods from Mexico, Canada and China.

If the tariffs come to pass, Constellation, the distributor of imported Mexican lager like Corona and Modelo Especial, could see the cost of its popular beers jump. Year to date, 86% of the company's sales came from Mexican beers, according to Roth MKM analyst Bill Kirk.

He estimates that Constellation would need a 12% price increase to fully offset a 25% increase in tariffs. That could make the popular beer brands less attractive to American consumers compared with domestic brands such as Bud Light.

Bud Light sales has tanked since last year as a result of Anheuser-Busch InBev's involvement with transgender influencer Dylan Mulvaney that triggered a consumer boycott. Constellation's Modelo Especial has surpassed Bud Light to become the best selling beer in the U.S. by dollar value.

Still, the analyst noted that it is possible for the company to avoid, or at least mitigate, the damage from a potential trade war.

The last proposed Mexican tariffs -- during Trump's first term in 2019 -- weren't implemented after negotiations led to compromises between the two countries. Texas, a top trading state with Mexico, would be particularly against the proposed tariffs, Kirk wrote in a Tuesday note.

Constellation also might be exempt since it was required by U.S. regulators to produce its beers in Mexico when it acquired the brands' U.S. distribution from Anheuser-Busch InBev in 2013.

"We believe it would be illogical to force a tariff on the same U.S. company that you obligate the location of production," Kirk wrote.

If tariffs are imposed, Constellation would likely try to pass the costs as much as possible to consumers. But history suggests consumer demand for beer seems resilient in response to price hikes, says the analyst.

When beer prices rose by more than 12% in 1991 due to the doubling of the federal excise tax, sales volumes were only down by 1.6% that year across the board. When Constellation hiked prices by 6% in some regions around late 2006, Corona and Modelo sales still outpaced peers.

The brand elasticity could help the company mitigate some impact from the potential tariff-driven price hikes, wrote Kirk.

Write to Evie Liu at evie.liu@barrons.com

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November 26, 2024 11:23 ET (16:23 GMT)

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