Harley-Davidson, Inc.'s (NYSE:HOG) investors are due to receive a payment of $0.1725 per share on 23rd of December. This means the dividend yield will be fairly typical at 2.1%.

See our latest analysis for Harley-Davidson

Harley-Davidson's Future Dividend Projections Appear Well Covered By Earnings

We like to see a healthy dividend yield, but that is only helpful to us if the payment can continue. However, prior to this announcement, Harley-Davidson's dividend was comfortably covered by both cash flow and earnings. This means that most of its earnings are being retained to grow the business.

Over the next year, EPS is forecast to expand by 16.6%. If the dividend continues on this path, the payout ratio could be 12% by next year, which we think can be pretty sustainable going forward.

Dividend Volatility

While the company has been paying a dividend for a long time, it has cut the dividend at least once in the last 10 years. The dividend has gone from an annual total of $0.84 in 2014 to the most recent total annual payment of $0.69. Doing the maths, this is a decline of about 1.9% per year. Generally, we don't like to see a dividend that has been declining over time as this can degrade shareholders' returns and indicate that the company may be running into problems.

The Dividend Looks Likely To Grow

With a relatively unstable dividend, it's even more important to evaluate if earnings per share is growing, which could point to a growing dividend in the future. We are encouraged to see that Harley-Davidson has grown earnings per share at 13% per year over the past five years. A low payout ratio and decent growth suggests that the company is reinvesting well, and it also has plenty of room to increase the dividend over time.

We Really Like Harley-Davidson's Dividend

In summary, it is good to see that the dividend is staying consistent, and we don't think there is any reason to suspect this might change over the medium term. Earnings are easily covering distributions, and the company is generating plenty of cash. All of these factors considered, we think this has solid potential as a dividend stock.

Companies possessing a stable dividend policy will likely enjoy greater investor interest than those suffering from a more inconsistent approach. Meanwhile, despite the importance of dividend payments, they are not the only factors our readers should know when assessing a company. For example, we've identified 2 warning signs for Harley-Davidson (1 can't be ignored!) that you should be aware of before investing. If you are a dividend investor, you might also want to look at our curated list of high yield dividend stocks.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.