A month has gone by since the last earnings report for Methanex (MEOH). Shares have added about 12.6% in that time frame, outperforming the S&P 500.

Will the recent positive trend continue leading up to its next earnings release, or is Methanex due for a pullback? Before we dive into how investors and analysts have reacted as of late, let's take a quick look at its most recent earnings report in order to get a better handle on the important drivers.

Methanex's Earnings and Revenues Surpass Estimates in Q3

Methanex logged third-quarter 2024 adjusted earnings of $1.21 per share compared with 2 cents in the year-ago quarter. The bottom line surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 44 cents.

Revenues rose around 13.6% year over year to $935 million in the quarter. The top line beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $920.1 million.

Adjusted EBITDA in the reported quarter climbed 105.7% year over year to $216 million.

Operational Highlights

Production in the quarter was 1,347,000 tons, down around 12.8% year over year. Total sales volume in the third quarter was 2,623,000 tons, lower than the prior-year quarter’s figure of 2,720,000 tons. The figure missed our estimate of 2,629,000 tons.

The average realized price for methanol was $356 per ton, up from $303 in the prior-year quarter. The figure was below our estimate of $360 per ton.

Financials

Cash flow from operating activities was $210 million. The company paid out $12.5 million in regular dividends to shareholders and concluded the third quarter with $511 million in cash.

Outlook

Methanex's production projection for the fourth quarter is about 1.9 million tons, which will be sold in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of 2025 as produced sales adjust to increasing production. Actual output may differ by quarter due to gas availability in Chile and New Zealand, turnarounds, other gas availability, unscheduled outages and unexpected events. 

The company expects adjusted EBITDA to remain flat sequentially, with higher produced sales and a higher average realized price offset by lower New Zealand gas sales and no benefit from Egypt's insurance recovery in the fourth quarter. Based on the company's October and November stated pricing, Methanex anticipates its average realized price range will be $365-$375 per ton for these months.




 

How Have Estimates Been Moving Since Then?

It turns out, fresh estimates flatlined during the past month.

VGM Scores

Currently, Methanex has an average Growth Score of C, however its Momentum Score is doing a bit better with a B. Charting a somewhat similar path, the stock was allocated a grade of A on the value side, putting it in the top quintile for this investment strategy.

Overall, the stock has an aggregate VGM Score of A. If you aren't focused on one strategy, this score is the one you should be interested in.

Outlook

Methanex has a Zacks Rank #2 (Buy). We expect an above average return from the stock in the next few months.

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