By Jamie McGeever
Dec 11 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets.
Investors go into Wednesday in a cautious frame of mind as they continue to digest the likely impact of China's policy signal this week, and following a 'risk off' day that saw stocks fall and the dollar and bond yields rise.
Asia's economic calendar on Wednesday is light, with only Japanese producer inflation and South Korean unemployment figures on tap. Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser also speaks, following the bank's policy decision on Tuesday.
With U.S. inflation figures to be released later on Wednesday after Asian markets close, potentially a key factor in whether the Fed cuts rates next week or not, investors may be inclined to hold the line and keep risk exposure to a minimum.
Tuesday's market moves would feed into that mindset. World stocks fell for a second day in a row, something that last happened a month ago, while the rise in bond yields and the dollar tightened financial conditions further.
Investors may be extra sensitive to any rise in bond yields this week, as the U.S. Treasury sells $125 billion of notes and $85 billion of bills.
Japanese government bond yields and the yen may also be sensitive to Wednesday's producer price numbers from Japan, especially after the substantial upward revision to third quarter GDP growth on Monday.
Meanwhile, investors and market watchers continue to try and figure out if Beijing's historic shift in its monetary and fiscal policy stance this week will be matched by equally bold action.
The economy certainly needs it. The latest trade figures on Tuesday were uniformly weak, with the near-4% year-on-year slump in imports last month particularly alarming. That was significantly worse than the bleakest forecast in a Reuters survey of 21 economists of a 3% decline, and highlights how brittle domestic demand is.
The 10-year Chinese bond yield fell further on Tuesday to a new all-time low of 1.877%. It has fallen more than 15 basis points so far this month, on track for its steepest monthly fall since July 2021.
Some analysts reckon the decline this week is a positive reaction to Beijing's shift, as it shows investors are anticipating a significant loosening of monetary policy soon.
There may be something to that, and substantial policy easing could indeed reflate growth and asset prices. But it's hard to disentangle the move in yields from the latest trade and inflation data that are a reminder of just how heavy the deflationary and weak demand pressures bearing down on the economy actually are.
The Indian rupee, meanwhile, is anchored at a record low, with rate cut hopes rising after the government named career civil servant Sanjay Malhotra to replace outgoing Reserve Bank of India Governor Shaktikanta Das.
Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Wednesday:
- South Korea unemployment (November)
- RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser speaks
- Japan producer inflation (November)
<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^ China's export growth slows in November China's bond rally points to growth worries World stocks fall for second day
^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>
(Reporting by Jamie McGeever;)
((mailto:jamie.mcgeever@thomsonreuters.com; Reuters Messaging: rm://jamie.mcgeever.reuters.com@reuters.net/))
免責聲明:投資有風險,本文並非投資建議,以上內容不應被視為任何金融產品的購買或出售要約、建議或邀請,作者或其他用戶的任何相關討論、評論或帖子也不應被視為此類內容。本文僅供一般參考,不考慮您的個人投資目標、財務狀況或需求。TTM對信息的準確性和完整性不承擔任何責任或保證,投資者應自行研究並在投資前尋求專業建議。