(Bloomberg) -- China’s oil demand may peak in 2025, five years earlier than expected, as the shift away from gasoline and diesel accelerates, according to a report from the nation’s largest energy producer.
Oil demand could reach 770 million tons in 2025, before gradually falling to 240 million tons by 2060, the report by China National Petroleum Corp. released on Tuesday shows. Earlier this year, an official with the group said overall demand was not expected to peak until 2030.
China’s economic woes have weighed on the broader oil market this year, and the nation’s role as the growth engine for global crude demand has diminished. The rapid adoption of new-energy vehicles and the use of liquefied natural gas to power trucks has chipped away at diesel and gasoline consumption.
Diesel demand peaked in 2019, while gasoline consumption reached its pinnacle a year ago, Wu Mouyuan, vice president of the CNPC Economics & Technology Research Institute, said in Beijing. Wu gave a presentation in February that forecast China’s overall oil demand topping out in 2030.
China’s 2024 oil demand is expected to be 756 million tons, little changed from a year ago, Wang Lining, director of oil market research at the institute, said at a forum. Capacity expansions to refining may peak in 2028, he added.
Other key figures from the report:
- China will maintain focus on its energy security and keep domestic crude output at 200 million tons through 2035
- Gas output may rise to 310 billion cubic meters by 2035, falling to 300 billion cubic meters by 2060
- Natural gas demand may peak at 620-650 billion cubic meters around 2035
- Electrification driven by China’s renewable boom is likely to rise by 1.3 percentage points annually through 2060, and it will account for 63% of the energy mix by 2060
- Demand for primary energy may peak at 7 billion tons of standard coal equivalent by 2035, falling to 6.4 billion tons by 2060
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