Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it might be obvious that you need to consider debt, when you think about how risky any given stock is, because too much debt can sink a company. Importantly, Tianjin Tianbao Energy Co., Ltd. (HKG:1671) does carry debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
Check out our latest analysis for Tianjin Tianbao Energy
As you can see below, at the end of June 2024, Tianjin Tianbao Energy had CN¥447.8m of debt, up from CN¥426.2m a year ago. Click the image for more detail. However, it also had CN¥134.2m in cash, and so its net debt is CN¥313.7m.
According to the last reported balance sheet, Tianjin Tianbao Energy had liabilities of CN¥374.8m due within 12 months, and liabilities of CN¥236.9m due beyond 12 months. On the other hand, it had cash of CN¥134.2m and CN¥149.9m worth of receivables due within a year. So it has liabilities totalling CN¥327.7m more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.
This deficit casts a shadow over the CN¥65.6m company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we definitely think shareholders need to watch this one closely. After all, Tianjin Tianbao Energy would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.
While we wouldn't worry about Tianjin Tianbao Energy's net debt to EBITDA ratio of 4.5, we think its super-low interest cover of 1.5 times is a sign of high leverage. In large part that's due to the company's significant depreciation and amortisation charges, which arguably mean its EBITDA is a very generous measure of earnings, and its debt may be more of a burden than it first appears. It seems clear that the cost of borrowing money is negatively impacting returns for shareholders, of late. Even worse, Tianjin Tianbao Energy saw its EBIT tank 47% over the last 12 months. If earnings keep going like that over the long term, it has a snowball's chance in hell of paying off that debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is Tianjin Tianbao Energy's earnings that will influence how the balance sheet holds up in the future. So when considering debt, it's definitely worth looking at the earnings trend. Click here for an interactive snapshot.
Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. During the last three years, Tianjin Tianbao Energy burned a lot of cash. While investors are no doubt expecting a reversal of that situation in due course, it clearly does mean its use of debt is more risky.
On the face of it, Tianjin Tianbao Energy's EBIT growth rate left us tentative about the stock, and its level of total liabilities was no more enticing than the one empty restaurant on the busiest night of the year. And even its interest cover fails to inspire much confidence. It's also worth noting that Tianjin Tianbao Energy is in the Electric Utilities industry, which is often considered to be quite defensive. It looks to us like Tianjin Tianbao Energy carries a significant balance sheet burden. If you play with fire you risk getting burnt, so we'd probably give this stock a wide berth. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Case in point: We've spotted 4 warning signs for Tianjin Tianbao Energy you should be aware of, and 3 of them shouldn't be ignored.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
Discover if Tianjin Tianbao Energy might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.
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