(Bloomberg) -- Global demand for coal is set to hit fresh records every year through at least 2027, International Energy Agency data show, overturning a previous estimate that it peaked last year, highlighting the challenges to limiting emissions that cause global warming. 

The latest forecast from the IEA sees demand for coal rising to nearly 8.9 billion tons by 2027, about 1% higher than 2024 levels. That overwrites last year’s estimate that coal demand would begin a steady decline this decade. The reality could surpass the current estimate, as demand has consistently eclipsed the IEA’s predictions in recent years. 

To get on track to reach net-zero emissions by 2050 and limit global warming in line with the Paris agreement, coal use would need to fall sharply this decade. Already the planet may have reached temperatures 1.5C above pre-industrial levels, an indication that collective climate action is failing.

While demand for the world’s most CO2-emitting fossil fuel is set to be blunted by the soaring deployment of wind turbines and solar panels, even a record-setting pace for those hasn’t been enough to halt, let alone reverse, coal’s rise.

“Our models show global demand for coal plateauing through 2027 even as electricity consumption rises sharply,” Keisuke Sadamori, the IEA’s director of energy markets and security said in a statement on Wednesday. “However, weather factors – particularly in China, the world’s largest coal consumer – will have a major impact on short-term trends for coal demand. The speed at which electricity demand grows will also be very important over the medium term.”

The IEA has been forecasting a plateauing of coal demand for at least five years, only to revise their estimates. Coal demand in 2024 was about 9% higher than a forecast made a few years ago.

While coal use has plummeted in Europe and the US, rising demand in India and China is more than enough to offset that. 

The rise in coal demand in the world’s two most populous countries by 2027 will be greater than the total demand in the EU by then, according to the IEA’s figures, underscoring how developing countries and their growing need for cheap energy are a crucial piece of the fight to prevent climate change.  

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