Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We note that Sims Limited (ASX:SGM) does have debt on its balance sheet. But is this debt a concern to shareholders?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.
View our latest analysis for Sims
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that at June 2024 Sims had debt of AU$505.0m, up from AU$444.2m in one year. On the flip side, it has AU$114.0m in cash leading to net debt of about AU$391.0m.
The latest balance sheet data shows that Sims had liabilities of AU$1.43b due within a year, and liabilities of AU$912.7m falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had AU$114.0m in cash and AU$619.5m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities total AU$1.61b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
This deficit is considerable relative to its market capitalization of AU$2.25b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on Sims' use of debt. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Sims's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
In the last year Sims wasn't profitable at an EBIT level, but managed to grow its revenue by 8.5%, to AU$7.2b. We usually like to see faster growth from unprofitable companies, but each to their own.
Importantly, Sims had an earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) loss over the last year. Indeed, it lost AU$89m at the EBIT level. When we look at that and recall the liabilities on its balance sheet, relative to cash, it seems unwise to us for the company to have any debt. Quite frankly we think the balance sheet is far from match-fit, although it could be improved with time. Another cause for caution is that is bled AU$12m in negative free cash flow over the last twelve months. So suffice it to say we do consider the stock to be risky. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Be aware that Sims is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about...
At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.
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