There's no doubt that investing in the stock market is a truly brilliant way to build wealth. But if when you choose to buy stocks, some of them will be below average performers. For example, the Mid Penn Bancorp, Inc. (NASDAQ:MPB), share price is up over the last year, but its gain of 17% trails the market return. Unfortunately the longer term returns are not so good, with the stock falling 15% in the last three years.
Let's take a look at the underlying fundamentals over the longer term, and see if they've been consistent with shareholders returns.
Check out our latest analysis for Mid Penn Bancorp
While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
Mid Penn Bancorp was able to grow EPS by 15% in the last twelve months. We note that the earnings per share growth isn't far from the share price growth (of 17%). That suggests that the market sentiment around the company hasn't changed much over that time. It makes intuitive sense that the share price and EPS would grow at similar rates.
The image below shows how EPS has tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).
It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. That said, we think earnings and revenue growth trends are even more important factors to consider. Before buying or selling a stock, we always recommend a close examination of historic growth trends, available here..
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. We note that for Mid Penn Bancorp the TSR over the last 1 year was 21%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!
Mid Penn Bancorp shareholders gained a total return of 21% during the year. But that was short of the market average. The silver lining is that the gain was actually better than the average annual return of 3% per year over five year. This suggests the company might be improving over time. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. To that end, you should be aware of the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Mid Penn Bancorp .
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: most of them are flying under the radar).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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