Jan 9 (Reuters) - AUD/USD struck a 27-month low Thursday but left major support at the 2022 yearly low untouched as profit taking from shorts helped erased much of the day's drop, and unless the U.S. December payroll data cooperates investors positioned short could get squeezed hard.
U.S. interest rates have rallied significantly since September as investors priced-out some Fed cuts as inflation remained sticky and the U.S. jobs market remained healthy. The U.S. Treasury 10-year yield neared the April 2024 monthly high Wednesday but has since pulled back and left the psychological 5.00% level untouched.
Daily technicals for the 10-year yield warn a correction lower is possible. RSI didn't confirm Thursday's high and a price drop on Thursday followed Wednesday's doji.
A disappointing payroll report may drive yields and the U.S. dollar sharply lower.
Positioning may then become an issue for AUD/USD bears as CFTC data indicate net-short positions hit their largest since May 2024.
Should AUD/USD rally following payrolls, investors short the pair may cover, which could intensify the rally. A test of the 0.6550/0.6600 zone might then take hold.
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(Christopher Romano is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own)
((mailto:christopher.romano@thomsonreuters.com;))
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