EMERGING MARKETS-FX firm, stocks recover as traders await US rate clues

Reuters
01-14
EMERGING MARKETS-FX firm, stocks recover as traders await US rate clues

Hungary inflation rises to 4.6% in Dec, above forecasts

MSCI stocks on track for best day since Oct 2024

MSCI FX up 0.2% , stocks gain 1.3%

By Purvi Agarwal

Jan 14 (Reuters) - Emerging market stocks rebounded while FX ticked higher on Tuesday after four sessions of declines as investors assessed the chances of U.S. interest rate cuts this year and awaited a slew of data and central bank decisions in the region.

The MSCI index tracking EM currencies .MIEM00000CUS was up 0.2% at 1000 GMT, despite a slight uptick in the dollar index =USD that snapped a four session winning streak in the last session.

"It's probably better characterized as a move slightly out of the US dollar, that against most currencies (has) been really strong recent weeks and months.... and there might be a bit more optimism in China this morning," said James Reilly, senior markets economist at Capital Economics.

MSCI's index tracking stocks .MSCIEF jumped 1.3%, on track to snap a four session losing streak and set for its best day since October. Asian shares broadly gained with Chinese stocks gaining most in more than two months.

EM assets started the week on a negative note on Monday, as a spillover impact from a strong U.S. jobs report last week sparked a U.S. bonds sell-off, elevating yields and pushing investors to dial back bets on U.S. monetary policy easing in 2025.

On the day, the euro EUR=, edged 0.3% and 0.1% higher against the Czech crown EURCZK= and Polish zloty EURPLN=, respectively.

The Hungarian forint EURHUF= was the only major central European currency that strengthened against the euro, last up 0.1%, after headline inflation in the country rose to an annual 4.6% in December, above forecast. The Budapest stock index .BUX was up 0.8%, trading at a record high.

Romania's leu EURRON= was flat despite an uptick in December inflation.

The Russian rouble RUB= weakened 0.2% against the greenback, after a recent seven-session gaining streak. Its central bank sought to dismiss rumours about a possible freezing of retail deposits, which have seen explosive growth in recent months.

In the Middle East, the Turkish lira TRYTOM=D3 fell 0.1%, hovering near a new low. Turkey's Bist 100 .XU100 jumped 1%.

South Africa's rand ZAR= gained 0.4% against the dollar, set for its best day in over a week.

The country's main index .JTOPI was up 1.1%. Johannesburg-listed shares of Reinet Investments RNIJ.J were the top gainer, up 8.6%, after it agreed to sell over 43 million shares in British American Tobacco.

Meanwhile, J.P. Morgan kept their forecast for emerging market growth in 2025 at 3.4%, cautioning that shifts in U.S. policy under Trump would pressure an otherwise broadly solid picture for the global economy.

HIGHLIGHTS:

** China's growth seen slowing to 4.5% in 2025 as US tariffs bite

** India's December wholesale inflation accelerates to 2.37% y/y

** Thai consumer confidence hits 6-month high in December

For TOP NEWS across emerging markets nTOPEMRG

For CENTRAL EUROPE market report, see CEE/

For TURKISH market report, see .IS

For RUSSIAN market report, see RU/RUB

For GRAPHIC on emerging market FX performance in 2024 http://tmsnrt.rs/2egbfVh

For GRAPHIC on MSCI emerging index performance in 2024 https://tmsnrt.rs/2OusNdX

(Reporting by Purvi Agarwal and Lisa Mattackal in Bengaluru; editing by Christina Fincher)

((Purvi.Agarwal@thomsonreuters.com;))

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