Alexandria Real Estate Equities Inc. ARE is scheduled to release fourth-quarter 2024 results on Jan. 27, after the closing bell. Its quarterly results are likely to reflect growth in revenues and funds from operations (FFO) per share.

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In the last reported quarter, this Pasadena, CA-based life science real estate investment trust (REIT), focusing on collaborative life science, agtech and technology campuses in AAA innovation cluster locations, missed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.42% in terms of adjusted FFO per share. ARE’s performance in the quarter reflected a rise in revenues, aided by decent leasing activity and rental rate growth.

Alexandria has a decent surprise history. Over the preceding four quarters, its adjusted FFO per share surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate on two occasions and missed in the remaining periods, with the average beat being 0.43%. This is depicted in the graph below:

Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise

Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Alexandria Real Estate Equities, Inc. Quote

Factors at Play

ARE specializes in developing Class A/A+ properties in prime AAA innovation cluster regions, attracting life science, agtech and technology companies as tenants. In the fourth quarter, this REIT is expected to have benefited from the rising demand for life-science properties, driven by the growing need for drug research and innovation.

As a result, ARE is expected to have witnessed healthy leasing and re-leasing activity and high occupancy levels. For the fourth quarter of 2024, we expect Alexandria’s occupancy of operating properties in North America to be 95.7%. Rental income is expected to increase 3.8% on a year-over-year basis in the quarter. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Alexandria’s quarterly revenues currently stands at $789.1 million, suggesting an increase of 4.2% from the prior-year period’s reported figure.

However, ARE’s large development and redevelopment pipeline supports long-term growth but increases its exposure to rising construction costs and lease-up concerns amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

Also, high interest expenses are likely to have been a spoilsport for Alexandria during the to-be-reported quarter. Elevated rates imply high borrowing costs for the company, affecting its ability to purchase or develop real estate. For the fourth quarter of 2024, our estimate indicates a 21.5% increase in the company’s interest expenses on a year-over-year basis.

Alexandria’s activities in the to-be-reported quarter were inadequate to garner analysts’ confidence. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the quarterly adjusted FFO per share has remained unchanged at $2.39 over the past month. However, the figure suggests a 4.8% increase from the year-ago quarter’s tally.

What Our Quantitative Model Predicts

Our proven model does not conclusively predict a surprise in terms of FFO per share for Alexandria this season. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an FFO beat, which is not the case here.

Alexandria currently has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and carries a Zacks Rank of 3. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

Stocks That Warrant a Look

Here are two stocks from the broader REIT sector — $Vornado Realty Trust(VNO-N)$ VNO and Ventas VTR — that you may want to consider, as our model shows that these have the right combination of elements to report a surprise this quarter.

Vornado Realty is slated to report quarterly numbers on Feb. 10. VNO has an Earnings ESP of +1.96% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

Ventas is slated to report quarterly numbers on Feb. 12. VTR has an Earnings ESP of +0.89% and carries a Zacks Rank of 3 at present.

Note: Anything related to earnings presented in this write-up represents funds from operations (FFO) — a widely used metric to gauge the performance of REITs.

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