Suncor Energy SU is set to report fourth-quarter earnings on Feb. 5, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for earnings is pegged at 82 cents per share and the same for revenues is pinned at $8.56 billion.

Find the latest EPS estimates and surprises on Zacks Earnings Calendar.

Let us delve into the factors that might have influenced SU’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter. Before that, it is worth taking a look at the company’s performance in the last reported quarter.

Highlights of SU’s Q3 Earnings & Surprise History

In the previous reported quarter, this Alberta-based integrated oil and gas company’s earnings beat the consensus mark. SU reported an earnings per share of $1.08, which beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 20 cents. This was primarily due to higher production from its oil sands, strong refining performance and efficient cost management in the reported quarter. The company’s operating revenues of $9.6 billion beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 11.7%. SU’s earnings beat the consensus estimate in each of the trailing four quarters, delivering an average surprise of 19.87% This is depicted in the graph below:

Trend in SU’s Estimate Revision

The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter 2024 earnings of 82 cents per share has witnessed a 7.8% upward movement in the past 30 days. The estimated figure indicates a 17.54% year-over-year bottom-line decline. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues indicates a deterioration of 11.83% from the year-ago period.

Factors to Consider Ahead of SU’s Q4 Release

Suncor Energy makes money by operating in three main areas. First, in its Oil Sands business, Suncor extracts and processes oil from Canada's oil sands, producing crude oil and synthetic oil. Second, through its Exploration and Production segment, Suncor operates offshore oil and gas fields, producing and selling crude oil and natural gas. Finally, in its Refining and Marketing segment, Suncor refines crude oil into products like gasoline and diesel. Suncor sells these products through its retail gas stations and other distribution channels.

On a positive note, the company is likely to have achieved record quarterly production of 874,000 barrels per day (bbls/d), an increase of 66,000 bbls/d from fourth-quarter 2023, potentially indicating strong performance across its oil sands and offshore assets. Refinery throughput is also expected to have set a new record at 487,000 bbls/d, with all four refineries operating at more than 100% utilization.

These results demonstrate Suncor’s operational efficiency and robust asset performance, positioning it well in the competitive energy sector. Additionally, the company has successfully reached its $8 billion net debt target nine months ahead of schedule, highlighting disciplined capital management and a strong balance sheet.

Despite these operational strengths, profitability is likely to have faced challenges due to external market factors. Even with higher production, weaker oil prices or refining margins are likely to have limited revenue growth, potentially affecting earnings. Furthermore, fluctuations in refining crack spreads and fuel demand are likely to have pressured downstream margins, reducing the financial benefit of record throughput levels.

On a more cautious note, inflationary pressures are likely to have increased operational expenses, with rising input costs and labor expenses potentially affecting overall profitability.

What Does Our Model Say About SU?

The proven Zacks model does not conclusively show an earnings beat for Suncor Energy this time around. The combination of a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) increases the chances of an earnings beat. However, that is not the case here.

Earnings ESP of SU: Earnings ESP, which represents the difference between the Most Accurate Estimate and the Zacks Consensus Estimate, for this company is 0.00%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.

SU’s Zacks Rank: SU currently carries a Zacks Rank #3.

Stocks to Consider

While an earnings beat looks uncertain for Suncor, here are some firms from the energy space that you may want to consider on the basis of our model:

California Resources CRC has an Earnings ESP of +2.59% and a Zacks Rank #1. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.

The firm is scheduled to release earnings on March 3. Notably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for California’s 2025 earnings per share indicates 8.03% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $4.67 billion, CRC’s shares have lost 0.1% in a year.

EQT EQT has an Earnings ESP of +4.50% and a Zacks Rank #3. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Feb. 18.

Notably, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for EQT’s 2025 earnings per share indicates 146.51% year-over-year growth. Valued at around $29.77 billion, EQT’s shares have gained 42% in a year.

Energy Transfer ET has an Earnings ESP of +4.23% and a Zacks Rank #3. The firm is scheduled to release earnings on Feb. 11.

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