• Average Realized Price (Q4 2024): $370 per tonne.
• Produced Sales (Q4 2024): Approximately 1.5 million tonnes.
• Adjusted EBITDA (Q4 2024): $224 million.
• Adjusted Net Income (Q4 2024): $1.24 per share.
• Average Realized Price (Full Year 2024): $355 per tonne.
• Produced Sales (Full Year 2024): Just over 6 million tonnes.
• Adjusted EBITDA (Full Year 2024): $764 million.
• Adjusted Net Income (Full Year 2024): $252 million or $3.72 per share.
• Cash Position (End of Q4 2024): $879 million.
• Undrawn Revolving Credit Facility: $500 million.
• Debt Repayment (Q4 2024): $300 million bond repaid.
• New Bond Issuance: $600 million.
• Term Loan A Commitment: $650 million.
• Expected Equity Production (2025): Approximately 7.5 million equity tonnes.
• Forecasted Average Realized Price (Q1 2025): $395 to $405 per metric tonne.

• Warning! GuruFocus has detected 10 Warning Signs with MEOH.

Release Date: January 30, 2025

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.

Positive Points

• Methanex Corp (NASDAQ:MEOH) achieved the best safety performance on record for the company in 2024, demonstrating a strong commitment to responsible care.
• The company reported a higher adjusted EBITDA of $224 million in Q4 2024, driven by increased methanol prices and higher sales volumes.
• Methanex Corp (NASDAQ:MEOH) expects methanol demand to grow at a similar rate in 2025, driven by traditional chemical and energy applications.
• The company has secured gas contracts in Chile and Argentina until 2030 and 2027, respectively, supporting long-term production stability.
• Methanex Corp (NASDAQ:MEOH) ended Q4 2024 with a strong financial position, holding $879 million in cash and access to a $500 million undrawn revolving credit facility.

Negative Points

• Methanex Corp (NASDAQ:MEOH) faces potential production curtailments in Egypt during 2025 due to gas supply and demand dynamics.
• The company anticipates production challenges in New Zealand, with expected output between 500,000 to 700,000 tonnes in 2025, dependent on gas availability.
• Methanex Corp (NASDAQ:MEOH) is planning three turnarounds in 2025, which will impact production in the first three quarters.
• The company is exposed to potential regulatory risks related to the OCI acquisition, with a closing expected in Q2 2025.
• Methanex Corp (NASDAQ:MEOH) is monitoring geopolitical and trade policy developments, which could impact methanol supply and demand dynamics.

Q & A Highlights

Q: Can you provide an update on the regulatory approvals for the OCI deal and the expected closing timeline? A: Rich Sumner, President and CEO, stated that the regulatory process is progressing as planned in both Europe and the US. The expectation is to close the deal in the first half of the year, likely in Q2.

Q: What insights do you have on the Iranian methanol industry's output levels and potential supply disruptions? A: Rich Sumner noted that there has been a significant reduction in Iranian methanol imports into China, indicating low production levels in December and likely into January. The energy crisis in Iran is impacting methanol production, which may lead to constrained supply through the first quarter and possibly into the second quarter.

Q: Could you clarify the expected production and sales levels for Q1 compared to Q4? A: Rich Sumner confirmed that production levels in Q1 are expected to be similar to Q4, with no significant inventory drawdown anticipated. The focus is on maintaining high production levels.

Q: How does the current methanol price environment affect your debt repayment and shareholder distribution plans post-OCI acquisition? A: Rich Sumner explained that at current methanol prices, the company expects significant free cash flow, which will aid in deleveraging. The initial leverage post-OCI acquisition will be lower than initially anticipated, allowing for a focus on debt repayment before considering shareholder distributions.

Q: What are the risks to methanol production in New Zealand, and how does it affect your long-term outlook? A: Rich Sumner highlighted that while current gas supply supports a one-plant operation, future production depends on upstream investment. There is a risk of reduced production if gas supply issues persist, but the company is working with suppliers and the government to address these challenges.

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.