Adds share moves in paragraph 2, analyst comments in paragraph 6, LNG price forecast in paragraph 9

By Rajasik Mukherjee

Jan 31 (Reuters) - Origin Energy ORG.AX on Friday forecast lower production from Australia Pacific LNG (APLNG) in 2025, and also reported an 11% sequential rise in second-quarter revenue from its stake in the project on the back of higher gas prices.

Shares of the Sydney-based company fell as much as 4.7% to A$10.675 by 0011 GMT, on track for their worst trading day since Aug. 15, if losses hold. The stock also hit their lowest point since Dec. 23, 2024.

The power producer expects its 2025 production from APLNG — Origin's joint venture with U.S. oil and gas major ConocoPhillips COP.N and Sinopec 600028.SS — to be in the range of 670 petajoules (PJ) to 690 petajoules (PJ), down 2%-3% from its previous outlook.

APLNG is the largest producer of natural gas in eastern Australia.

Origin said lower performances at some of its Queensland projects, coupled with lacklustre performance in non-operated assets due to unplanned maintenances impacted its forecast.

"APLNG 2Q results were largely in line, although the downgrade to FY25 production guidance on field performance is concerning for the trade-off between capex and production," Citi analysts said in a note.

Origin's revenue from its stake in APLNG rose to A$681 million ($422.70 million) in the quarter ended Dec. 31, compared with A$615 million in the preceding three months.

The company realised $12.20 per metric million British thermal units (mmBtu) for its LNG product from the project, compared with $11.95 in the first quarter.

Analysts anticipate LNG prices, which faced significant volatility in 2024 due to ample inventories and geopolitical uncertainty, to advance in 2025.

The country's second-largest power producer said its LNG trading EBITDA logged a 270% rise to A$285 million in the half year of 2025, in line with its 2025 forecast.

LNG sales at APLNG rose 6% to 38.4 PJ from the previous quarter, the company said, adding that total production share from the project dipped 1% sequentially to 47.4 PJ.

($1 = 1.6111 Australian dollars)

(Reporting by Rajasik Mukherjee and Roshan Thomas in Bengaluru; Editing by Shilpi Majumdar, Maju Samuel and Sherry Jacob-Phillips)

((Roshan.Thomas@thomsonreuters.com;Rajasik.Mukherjee@thomsonreuters.com))