Today, in the Real Estate Newsletter: ICE Mortgage Monitor: “Lowest calendar year home price growth of any year since 2011” Brief excerpt:

Here is the year-over-year in house prices according to the ICE Home Price Index (HPI). The ICE HPI is a repeat sales index. ICE reports the median price change of the repeat sales. The index was up 3.4% year-over-year in December.

Source: ICE Home Price Index (HPI)

• Annual home price growth edged slightly higher in December, closing out the year at +3.4%

• That marks the lowest calendar year home price growth of any year since 2011 when the housing market was nearing its trough following the Great Financial Crisis

• In fact, 2024’s growth was a full percentage point below the +4.4% growth seen in both 2014 and 2018, which were previously the lowest growth years in the past decade

• The modest uptick in December’s annual home price growth rate was a result of softer price gains in late 2023 rolling out of the backward-looking 12-month window, rather than a strengthening of prices in December

• On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices rose by 0.2% in the month, roughly equivalent November, and slightly below October, following the brief dip in 30-year rates to near 6% in the lead-up to the Fed’s 50 bps rate cut in September

• If current seasonally adjusted monthly gains persist, the annual home price growth rate is poised to begin cooling again in the early months of 2025

There is much more in the mortgage monitor including an extensive analysis of the financial impact of the California wildfires.