It's shaping up to be a tough period for ScanSource, Inc. (NASDAQ:SCSC), which a week ago released some disappointing quarterly results that could have a notable impact on how the market views the stock. Earnings fell badly short of analyst estimates, with US$747m revenues missing by 12%, and statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.70 falling short of forecasts by some -12%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for ScanSource

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for ScanSource from three analysts is for revenues of US$3.18b in 2025. If met, it would imply a satisfactory 5.1% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 4.9% to US$2.81. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$3.28b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.16 in 2025. The analysts seem less optimistic after the recent results, reducing their revenue forecasts and making a substantial drop in earnings per share numbers.

Despite the cuts to forecast earnings, there was no real change to the US$55.00 price target, showing that the analysts don't think the changes have a meaningful impact on its intrinsic value.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting ScanSource's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 10% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 3.7% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 7.3% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that ScanSource is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for ScanSource. They also downgraded ScanSource's revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for ScanSource going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see whether ScanSource is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.