• Revenue: SEK40 billion, up 7%.
• Organic Sales Growth: -0.3% overall, with variations across regions and divisions.
• Operating Margin: 16.5%.
• Operating Income: Approximately SEK6.5 billion, up 14%.
• EBITA Margin: 17.4%.
• Cash Conversion: 141% for the quarter, 110% for the full year.
• Cash Flow: Record cash flow of SEK8 billion for the quarter.
• Earnings Per Share: Up 7% for the quarter.
• Acquisitions: Eight acquisitions in the quarter, 26 for the full year.
• Net Debt to EBITDA: 2.3.
• Dividend Proposal: SEK5.9 per share.

• Warning! GuruFocus has detected 5 Warning Sign with ASAZF.

Release Date: February 05, 2025

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.

Positive Points

• Assa Abloy AB (ASAZF) reported a strong operating margin of 16.5% and a record operating income of around SEK6.5 billion.
• The company achieved a record cash conversion of 141% in the quarter and 110% for the full year, with a record cash flow of SEK8 billion.
• Assa Abloy AB (ASAZF) completed eight acquisitions in the quarter and 26 for the full year, setting a new record for the third consecutive year.
• The company launched a record number of more than 550 new products in 2024, including the Kwikset Halo Select smart lock.
• Global Tech division showed strong performance with an organic sales growth of 5% and an operating margin of 19.3%.

Negative Points

• Organic sales growth was slightly negative at -0.3%, with declines in the Entrance Systems and Asia Pacific regions.
• The residential market remains challenging, with interest rates not decreasing as quickly as anticipated, impacting sales.
• The Asia Pacific region experienced a significant sales decline of 11%, particularly in China and Southeast Asia.
• Entrance Systems saw an organic sales decline of 2%, affected by lower activity in the residential and industrial segments.
• The company faces an uncertain economic and political climate, with potential tariffs posing a risk to pricing strategies.

Q & A Highlights

Q: Can you comment on how you're planning around potential tariffs in the US and any prebuy activities? A: We produce as much as we can locally, with over 70% of US sales produced in the US. If tariffs are imposed, we plan to compensate through price increases. We are prepared to adjust pricing as needed, especially if tariffs on imports from Mexico or China are implemented.

Q: What is your outlook for the US residential market given the current interest rate environment? A: We are less optimistic about the residential market recovery due to slower-than-expected interest rate reductions. However, we believe there is still a need for new housing investments, and easier comparisons with last year should help. We expect a recovery, but the timing is uncertain.

Q: Do you see an inflection point for organic growth in 2025, and what are the potential drivers? A: We aim to achieve positive organic volume growth by focusing on commercial segments and logistics, which we believe have bottomed out. The residential market remains uncertain, but easier comparisons and interest rate cuts in some regions, like Sweden, should aid recovery.

Q: How do you expect pricing to develop in 2025, excluding tariffs? A: We anticipate pricing to be higher than pre-COVID levels but lower than last year's 2% increase. We expect a price component between 1% and 2%, with 1.5% as a reasonable target, depending on tariff impacts.

Q: What has driven the acceleration in acquired growth over the last few years? A: Our active acquisition strategy, with a focus on identifying and engaging potential targets, has been key. We have a pipeline of over 900 potential acquisitions and maintain ongoing discussions with many of them, leading to increased acquisition activity.

Q: How are you setting up the business for 2025, considering growth uncertainties? A: We aim to return to positive organic volume growth by investing in new product development and acquisitions. Acquisitions are expected to contribute around 3% to growth this year, with more deals anticipated.

Q: What is your target for return on capital employed, given the drop in 2024? A: While we don't set a specific target, we aim for continuous improvement. The drop was mainly due to the HHI acquisition, but we saw a 20 basis point improvement from Q3 to Q4 and expect further positive evolution.

Q: Can you provide insights into the Entrance Systems margin and its sustainability? A: We are pleased with the margin development and aim to maintain it above 16%. However, SKIDATA's seasonal dilution and a shift back to equipment sales, which have lower margins than services, may impact margins.

For the complete transcript of the earnings call, please refer to the full earnings call transcript.