Should You Buy This Supercharged Growth Stock That's Down 39% Right Now?

Motley Fool
02-08
  • By catering to a single industry and its needs, Toast has found tremendous success.
  • Leveraging its operating expenses is starting to produce positive earnings.
  • Toast stock isn't necessarily cheap, but bullish investors might still consider it.

The stock market's impressive run over the past couple of years has lifted some businesses much more than others. For example, shares of one software-as-a-service (SaaS) company have surged 111% higher just in the past 12 months.

That's not surprising, given the impressive trajectory this business is on. Yet even after that run, its shares still trade 39% below the peak they touched in November 2021. Is this still a good time to buy this supercharged growth stock?

Taking care of the restaurant industry

Toast (TOST -2.05%) has made a name for itself by catering specifically to the needs of the restaurant sector. With a comprehensive product and service assortment that ranges from point-of-sales devices and payroll management to marketing tools and working capital loans, it's a one-stop shop for the tools that managers and owners need to better run their operations.

Since its founding in 2012, Toast has registered fantastic growth. Even amid macro headwinds, its top-line gains have been notable, and they still continue. In the third quarter, Toast posted 26% year-over-year revenue growth. It also added 7,000 new restaurant locations to its customer base, bringing the total to 127,000.

Yet the company still has a sizable runway. There are 875,000 restaurant locations just in the U.S., and 15 million internationally (excluding China). Toast's comprehensive product suite won't find its way into all of them, but it has huge room for expansion.

Becoming financially sound

After years of posting losses, Toast is starting to report earnings. In the second and third quarters of last year, it produced combined net income of $70 million.

Toast's leadership team might now have the experience to be able to better leverage its operating expenses. Spending money on sales, marketing, and research & development is certainly necessary for the future of this company. But these costs won't need to grow as much as they have historically now that Toast has a well-established industry presence.

The company also will benefit from switching costs, a key competitive advantage. As a growing number of customers commit to its ecosystem for the long term rather than putting resources into changing service providers, Toast won't have to spend as much on marketing to acquire new clients. And because customer satisfaction is high, those established clients have even less incentive to stray.

I think we're already witnessing the benefits of Toast's ability to provide its restaurant clients with lots of value. Given that 20% of new customers come from referrals and 75% from in-bound channels, the service is already attracting significant interest.

Is valuation important to you?

A year ago, before Toast's stock more than doubled, it traded at a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 2.6. That looked like a compelling entry point. Today, after more than doubling in price, the stock trades at a P/S multiple of 4.8, which I think might be too steep of a valuation.

But now that Toast is generating positive net income, investors can also weigh it on earnings-based valuation metrics. Shares now trade at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of about 44. At first glance, that doesn't scream bargain, either.

According to analysts' consensus estimates, Toast's earnings per share are projected to grow by 102% between 2024 and 2026. It's best to take such forecasts with a grain of salt, but they do offer a reasonable idea about what could happen. If you believe earnings are going to skyrocket, the current valuation doesn't look expensive. Investors who buy in today are pricing in that bright potential future. Whether it will appear is, of course, uncertain.

Investors who are bullish on Toast should consider opening a small position at first, and -- if earnings trends justify it -- purchase more shares over time.

免責聲明:投資有風險,本文並非投資建議,以上內容不應被視為任何金融產品的購買或出售要約、建議或邀請,作者或其他用戶的任何相關討論、評論或帖子也不應被視為此類內容。本文僅供一般參考,不考慮您的個人投資目標、財務狀況或需求。TTM對信息的準確性和完整性不承擔任何責任或保證,投資者應自行研究並在投資前尋求專業建議。

熱議股票

  1. 1
     
     
     
     
  2. 2
     
     
     
     
  3. 3
     
     
     
     
  4. 4
     
     
     
     
  5. 5
     
     
     
     
  6. 6
     
     
     
     
  7. 7
     
     
     
     
  8. 8
     
     
     
     
  9. 9
     
     
     
     
  10. 10