• President Trump wants to increase drilling to lower oil prices, but producers are hesitant.
• Sources told The Wall Street Journal that US producers aren't looking to boost production.
• OPEC+ also won't deliver on the White House's request for more oil.

President Donald Trump's pledge to lower prices at the pump is getting tested by US and international energy producers alike.

Though the administration has committed to sweeping away regulation of the oil and gas industry, that might not be enough incentive for producers to "drill, baby, drill."

While the Trump mantra defined the president's energy platform during his campaign, it glosses over the fact that US shale firms are already pumping historic amounts of oil. At this point, a boost to drilling and a surge in oil supply could threaten profitability.

Sources told The Wall Street Journal that White House advisers recognize this and don't expect the US shale industry to increase output. Corporate leaders have hinted as much in recent earnings commentary, cautioning not to expect a major drilling ramp-up.

"As crude prices come down, we expect the industry revenues to go down and profits to go down," ExxonMobile CEO Darren Woods said last week. While Trump wants to vastly expand drilling, industry giants are more concerned about navigating a mounting supply glut in the global market, which has pressured prices down worldwide.

According to the Kansas City Federal Reserve, WTI oil prices would need to average $84 per barrel for domestic firms to significantly boost drilling. That's about 15% above current prices.

If Trump is dedicated to lowering energy prices, his advisers expect that outside help is needed. The president's best bet is the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, the cartel of foreign oil producers led by Saudi Arabia. The president appears to realize this, calling on OPEC to help lower prices last month in his address to the World Economic Forum.

However, sources told the Journal that Saudi officials have signaled to the Trump team that the country's producers are unwilling to boost supply.

After all, OPEC members have voluntarily held back output in the past two years to increase market prices. Many of these countries depend on oil profits and have been scarred by the market's slide. Although the quotas were set to expire in previous months, the cartel has delayed the production revival three times.

In a review meeting on Monday, the OPEC+ coalition confirmed plans to increase output in April, keeping supply in check for the rest of this quarter. The cartel will rollback production curbs gradually, bringing online 2.1 million barrels by late 2026.

According to one former US official who spoke with the Journal, a price war between Trump and Saudi Arabia is likely.