It hasn't been the best quarter for TFI International Inc. (TSE:TFII) shareholders, since the share price has fallen 11% in that time. But that does not change the realty that the stock's performance has been terrific, over five years. To be precise, the stock price is 326% higher than it was five years ago, a wonderful performance by any measure. Arguably, the recent fall is to be expected after such a strong rise. Of course what matters most is whether the business can improve itself sustainably, thus justifying a higher price.
In light of the stock dropping 6.4% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive five-year return.
See our latest analysis for TFI International
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).
Over half a decade, TFI International managed to grow its earnings per share at 14% a year. This EPS growth is slower than the share price growth of 34% per year, over the same period. This suggests that market participants hold the company in higher regard, these days. And that's hardly shocking given the track record of growth.
You can see below how EPS has changed over time (discover the exact values by clicking on the image).
It's probably worth noting we've seen significant insider buying in the last quarter, which we consider a positive. On the other hand, we think the revenue and earnings trends are much more meaningful measures of the business. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of TFI International's earnings, revenue and cash flow.
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for TFI International the TSR over the last 5 years was 357%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.
TFI International shareholders are up 3.1% for the year (even including dividends). But that was short of the market average. It's probably a good sign that the company has an even better long term track record, having provided shareholders with an annual TSR of 35% over five years. It may well be that this is a business worth popping on the watching, given the continuing positive reception, over time, from the market. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand TFI International better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for TFI International you should be aware of.
There are plenty of other companies that have insiders buying up shares. You probably do not want to miss this free list of undervalued small cap companies that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Canadian exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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