Just because a business does not make any money, does not mean that the stock will go down. For example, although Amazon.com made losses for many years after listing, if you had bought and held the shares since 1999, you would have made a fortune. But the harsh reality is that very many loss making companies burn through all their cash and go bankrupt.

Given this risk, we thought we'd take a look at whether NextEd Group (ASX:NXD) shareholders should be worried about its cash burn. In this report, we will consider the company's annual negative free cash flow, henceforth referring to it as the 'cash burn'. The first step is to compare its cash burn with its cash reserves, to give us its 'cash runway'.

Check out our latest analysis for NextEd Group

When Might NextEd Group Run Out Of Money?

A company's cash runway is calculated by dividing its cash hoard by its cash burn. When NextEd Group last reported its June 2024 balance sheet in September 2024, it had zero debt and cash worth AU$19m. Importantly, its cash burn was AU$9.7m over the trailing twelve months. Therefore, from June 2024 it had 2.0 years of cash runway. Importantly, analysts think that NextEd Group will reach cashflow breakeven in 3 years. Essentially, that means the company will either reduce its cash burn, or else require more cash. The image below shows how its cash balance has been changing over the last few years.

Is NextEd Group's Revenue Growing?

Given that NextEd Group actually had positive free cash flow last year, before burning cash this year, we'll focus on its operating revenue to get a measure of the business trajectory. While it's not that amazing, we still think that the 8.9% increase in revenue from operations was a positive. Clearly, however, the crucial factor is whether the company will grow its business going forward. So you might want to take a peek at how much the company is expected to grow in the next few years.

How Easily Can NextEd Group Raise Cash?

Notwithstanding NextEd Group's revenue growth, it is still important to consider how it could raise more money, if it needs to. Issuing new shares, or taking on debt, are the most common ways for a listed company to raise more money for its business. Commonly, a business will sell new shares in itself to raise cash and drive growth. By comparing a company's annual cash burn to its total market capitalisation, we can estimate roughly how many shares it would have to issue in order to run the company for another year (at the same burn rate).

NextEd Group has a market capitalisation of AU$32m and burnt through AU$9.7m last year, which is 30% of the company's market value. That's fairly notable cash burn, so if the company had to sell shares to cover the cost of another year's operations, shareholders would suffer some costly dilution.

So, Should We Worry About NextEd Group's Cash Burn?

Even though its cash burn relative to its market cap makes us a little nervous, we are compelled to mention that we thought NextEd Group's cash runway was relatively promising. Shareholders can take heart from the fact that analysts are forecasting it will reach breakeven. Cash burning companies are always on the riskier side of things, but after considering all of the factors discussed in this short piece, we're not too worried about its rate of cash burn. On another note, NextEd Group has 3 warning signs (and 1 which is significant) we think you should know about.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies with significant insider holdings, and this list of stocks growth stocks (according to analyst forecasts)

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.