By Joe Hoppe

A roundup of key agricultural commodity markets for the week Feb. 10-14 by Dow Jones Newswires in Barcelona.

GRAINS & OILSEEDS: The macroeconomic mood is mixed as the U.S. dollar rose on continued U.S. tariff discussions, with uncertainty and volatility expected ahead.

The dollar gained Monday after the U.S. said it will impose a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum from all countries. The stronger dollar will make it less attractive for international buyers to purchase dollar-denominated commodities.

Agricultural money flows aren't getting a strong directional signal amidst the uncertainty, and crucial commodity currency like the Chinese yuan and Brazilian real are trading sideways, Peak Trading analysts said in a note.

Looking ahead, Tuesday will see the release of February's World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates reports. For corn, market focus will be on ethanol and export demand upgrades, while for soybeans, the market expects upgrades to Brazilian and cuts to Argentinian production.

Wednesday marks the release of January Consumer Price Index data for the U.S. A strong CPI print would put Federal Reserve hikes back on the table, strengthening the dollar and driving down risk assets and commodities.

On the weather front, South American weather has greatly improved, with Argentina getting much-needed rainfall across key growing regions, though more rain is needed for crop stabilization. Brazil is entering a drier pattern, which will speed up soybean harvest progress and create a good window for corn planting, Peak Trading says.

Chicago wheat futures are down 0.9% at $5.78 a bushel on Monday, while corn is up 0.8% at $4.92 a bushel. Soybean prices are down 0.1% at $10.49 a bushel.

SOFT COMMODITIES: Agricultural softs have had a mixed performance over the past week, with arabica coffee recording a string of record highs but cocoa and orange juice seeing losses.

Arabica coffee prices hit a record level earlier in the session, as the market digests an increasingly dire global supply outlook, BMI analysts said in a note. Arabica set a fresh record of $4.31 earlier in the session, exceeding the prior record of $4.14 set on Friday.

Fears of a supply shortage have been exacerbated by persistent drought conditions in Brazil, reducing expectations for the 2025-26 crop. The current market tightness makes coffee prices highly sensitive to reports of further issues, BMI said.

Cocoa prices slid in thin trading on Monday. The crop is down on month but remains up nearly 75% on year due to supply-side concerns.

Recent price fluctuations in cocoa have been relatively common due to low market liquidity, and given minimal changes in market fundamentals, tight supplies will continue to sustain cocoa near record levels, BMI said .

On Monday, cocoa is up 0.9% at $9,786 a metric ton, while coffee is up 5.7% at $4.27 a pound. Sugar is up 1% at $0.20 a pound.

Write to Joe Hoppe at joseph.hoppe@wsj.com

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

February 10, 2025 12:49 ET (17:49 GMT)

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