Shopify Q1 Growth Prospects Tempered by Headwinds; Investment Case Still Justified, Oppenheimer Says

MT Newswires Live
2025/02/13

Shopify's (SHOP) Q1 revenue outlook is tempered by extended free trial periods, foreign exchange headwinds, and the leap year effect, Oppenheimer said in a note emailed Wednesday.

When adjusted for these factors, topline growth maps closer to investor expectations, mitigating some concerns about the apparent slowdown.

The company forecasted "mid-20%s" topline growth for Q1, marking a notable deceleration from the 31% growth seen in Q4.

"While not directly called out, we assume some trade uncertainty seeped into projections," the firm noted, adding that investors were slightly disappointed by the projected Q1 revenue deceleration.

Despite the slowdown, Oppenheimer said the investment case for Shopify remains compelling due to its status as "a mid-20%+ growth company with an outsized [Total Addressable Market]," even as the company guides for a flat free cash flow margin for fiscal 2025.

Oppenheimer raised its price target for the stock to $150 from $130, while reiterating its outperform rating.

Price: 120.35, Change: -3.24, Percent Change: -2.62

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