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MUCH ADO ABOUT TARIFFS

With earnings season heading into its last few weeks, Morgan Stanley takes a look at how companies fielded questions on the imposition of U.S. tariffs.

The barrage of tariff headlines appears to have calmed, albeit temporarily, but plenty of uncertainty remains over the impact on company earnings and the global economy with the outcome of Washington's review on reciprocal tariffs still awaited in April.

Unsurprisingly, tariff mentions in earnings calls spiked over the past few weeks, but most companies were reluctant to offer concrete details without more clarity on policy, Morgan Stanley analysts say.

Meanwhile, companies cited their experience with trade wars under Donald Trump's first presidency as helping prepare their playbook for 2025.

Still, most companies said that cost increases would be passed through to the consumer.

The industries that most frequently discussed passing on costs included media and entertainment, utilities, construction, autos, and capital goods, as per Morgan Stanley.

MS equity strategists in a note published Sunday said that tariffs are likely to be an "idiosyncratic development" for equity markets.

However, that changes if tariffs were imposed on China, Mexico and Canada through 2026 - in which case, the analysts see a 5%-7% hit to S&P 500 consensus forward earnings per share.

Consumer discretionary stocks and technology hardware stocks are the most vulnerable to tariffs, MS analysts said.

(Lisa Mattackal)

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