It's easy to match the overall market return by buying an index fund. Active investors aim to buy stocks that vastly outperform the market - but in the process, they risk under-performance. That downside risk was realized by Utz Brands, Inc. (NYSE:UTZ) shareholders over the last year, as the share price declined 29%. That's disappointing when you consider the market returned 26%. Longer term shareholders haven't suffered as badly, since the stock is down a comparatively less painful 12% in three years. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 21% in the last 90 days.
It's worthwhile assessing if the company's economics have been moving in lockstep with these underwhelming shareholder returns, or if there is some disparity between the two. So let's do just that.
Check out our latest analysis for Utz Brands
Given that Utz Brands didn't make a profit in the last twelve months, we'll focus on revenue growth to form a quick view of its business development. Shareholders of unprofitable companies usually desire strong revenue growth. That's because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.
Utz Brands' revenue didn't grow at all in the last year. In fact, it fell 1.4%. That's not what investors generally want to see. The stock price has languished lately, falling 29% in a year. What would you expect when revenue is falling, and it doesn't make a profit? It's hard to escape the conclusion that buyers must envision either growth down the track, cost cutting, or both.
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
Utz Brands is a well known stock, with plenty of analyst coverage, suggesting some visibility into future growth. Given we have quite a good number of analyst forecasts, it might be well worth checking out this free chart depicting consensus estimates.
Investors in Utz Brands had a tough year, with a total loss of 28% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 26%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 5%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Utz Brands better, we need to consider many other factors. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Utz Brands .
If you are like me, then you will not want to miss this free list of undervalued small caps that insiders are buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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