The simplest way to benefit from a rising market is to buy an index fund. But if you buy individual stocks, you can do both better or worse than that. Unfortunately the ICF International, Inc. (NASDAQ:ICFI) share price slid 29% over twelve months. That's disappointing when you consider the market returned 24%. Longer term investors have fared much better, since the share price is up 20% in three years. Shareholders have had an even rougher run lately, with the share price down 19% in the last 90 days.
After losing 6.3% this past week, it's worth investigating the company's fundamentals to see what we can infer from past performance.
See our latest analysis for ICF International
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.
During the unfortunate twelve months during which the ICF International share price fell, it actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 56%. Of course, the situation might betray previous over-optimism about growth.
It's surprising to see the share price fall so much, despite the improved EPS. So it's well worth checking out some other metrics, too.
Given the yield is quite low, at 0.5%, we doubt the dividend can shed much light on the share price. Revenue was fairly steady year on year, which isn't usually such a bad thing. But the share price might be lower because the market expected a meaningful improvement, and got none.
You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).
We know that ICF International has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? You can see what analysts are predicting for ICF International in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.
Investors in ICF International had a tough year, with a total loss of 29% (including dividends), against a market gain of about 24%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 5% per year over half a decade. It could be that the recent sell-off is an opportunity, so it may be worth checking the fundamental data for signs of a long term growth trend. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand ICF International better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for ICF International you should be aware of.
But note: ICF International may not be the best stock to buy. So take a peek at this free list of interesting companies with past earnings growth (and further growth forecast).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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